BHP’s aggressive near-$60 billion offer for Anglo American has undeniably altered the trajectory for the London-listed mining giant, signaling that there’s no going back to the way things were. This bid has not only spotlighted Anglo American’s vulnerabilities but has also catalyzed the need for profound structural changes within the company, irrespective of the outcome.
The proposal from BHP, characterized by some as opportunistic, leverages Anglo American’s recent suboptimal performance and structural inefficiencies to justify its timing. Anglo’s recent financial reports paint a stark picture: a 94% plummet in attributable profits to just $283 million, with underlying EBITDA also down by 31% to $9.96 billion. Moreover, the company reported negative free cash flows of $1.4 billion and a worrying increase in net debt from $6.9 billion to $10.6 billion. Such dire financial health has necessitated a rigorous cost-cutting initiative aiming to save $1 billion annually and reduce capital expenditures by $1.6 billion over the next three years.
At the heart of Anglo American’s appeal to BHP, and potentially other bidders, is its South American copper operations and other growth projects. However, financial constraints significantly limit Anglo’s ability to capitalize on these assets. Furthermore, Anglo’s ambitious Woodsmith polyhalite fertilizer project in the UK, which has already seen a write-off of $1.7 billion and continues to demand hefty capital injections, exemplifies the company’s risky investment ventures in uncertain markets.
BHP’s bid proposes a strategic demerger of Anglo’s major South African entities—its platinum metals group and Kumba iron ore business—which collectively contributed more than a third of Anglo’s EBITDA last year. This move could simplify the complex corporate structure and potentially enhance shareholder value by focusing on more profitable segments.
Whether or not BHP succeeds, the unsolicited bid has undoubtedly placed Anglo American in a position where significant changes are inevitable. This could either spark a series of defensive maneuvers from Anglo or possibly attract other major players in the mining sector, potentially reshaping the industry landscape. The coming months will be crucial in determining the path forward for Anglo American and its suite of global mining interests. 
