BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions, has revised its forecast for the global tin market, projecting an escalating shortage and further price increases in the coming years. Tin prices, which averaged $18,730 per ton between 2016 and 2020, have surged to over $32,000 per ton, driven by a supply deficit.
The tin market has been severely affected by disruptions in key producing regions. In Myanmar, once the world’s third-largest tin producer, operations at the largest tin mine, Man Maw, were halted in August 2023 due to conflict with the local population. The mine has yet to resume production, leaving Chinese smelters in Yunnan province, which rely on Myanmar’s concentrate, running at reduced capacity.
In Indonesia, the world’s leading exporter of refined tin, external shipments dropped by 54% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. Delays in government approval for production plans caused this decline, though BMI notes that the situation has since stabilized. However, the backlog caused by the delays will impact supply for the foreseeable future.
BMI does not anticipate a substantial increase in global tin production in the near term. Meanwhile, demand, particularly from the electronics industry—where tin is used in soldering—continues to grow. BMI predicts that by 2028, the global tin market will face a chronic shortage, with supply expected to fall more than 100,000 tons short of demand by 2032, representing around 25% of total consumption. Prices are forecast to reach $45,000 per ton by that time. 
