China’s aluminium production in January reached 3.562 million metric tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The daily average output remained consistent month-on-month at approximately 114,900 metric tons. A slight decline in the operating rate of aluminium primary processing enterprises was observed, particularly affecting the production of aluminium billets and other products across various regions including the northwest and southwest. Consequently, the proportion of aluminium liquid output experienced a significant decrease both month-on-month and year-on-year, settling at around 70.36%.
January’s statistics also reveal a 24% year-on-year reduction in domestic aluminium ingot volume, totaling 1.06 million metric tons. Key production areas were identified as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan, collectively contributing to 55.7% of the total production.
Despite the absence of large-scale production suspensions or resumptions in January, the aluminium industry maintained a steady operational pace. The total existing capacity was reported at 45.19 million metric tons, with an operating capacity of approximately 41.98 million metric tons. This resulted in an operating rate of 92.9%, indicating a 3.9 percentage point increase compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to February 2024, it is expected that domestic aluminium companies will continue their steady operations. Notably, the supply of wind power, photovoltaic, and thermal power in Yunnan has shown a year-on-year increase during the dry season. However, local aluminium companies have not received any notifications to resume production, suggesting that operations in the province will remain stable through February and March without further changes in production capacity.
Predictions for February indicate that domestic aluminium operating capacity may hold steady at around 42 million metric tons. This stability suggests that the average daily domestic aluminium production will likely remain unchanged. The total domestic aluminium production for February (spanning 29 days) is anticipated to reach approximately 3.33 million metric tons, reflecting a 7.9% year-on-year increase. With the Chinese New Year approaching and a consequent drop in the operating rate of downstream enterprises, an increase in aluminium ingot production is expected. The proportion of aluminium liquid for February is projected to decrease to around 66%, marking a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year. 
