Nickel, lithium, and uranium often dominate discussions about mineral requirements for electrification. However, copper may emerge as the critical bottleneck. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that over 80 million kilometers of power lines will need to be constructed or replaced globally between 2022 and 2040, costing $183 billion. BloombergNEF estimates an even higher demand, suggesting that 152 million kilometers of power grid will be necessary to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, requiring 427 million tons of copper. This demand vastly exceeds that for wind turbines, solar panels, and battery storage.
In France, the Electricity Transmission System Operator (RTE) forecasts an annual need of 30,000 to 70,000 tonnes of copper for the power grid from 2022 to 2050. This surge is driven by growing electricity demand and increasingly decentralized production methods, such as solar panel fields and wind farms, which require extensive cabling. Copper is integral to all components of electrical networks, from cables to transformers.
Offshore wind turbines are particularly copper-intensive, needing about 4 tonnes of copper per installed megawatt (MW), compared to 3 tonnes per MW for onshore wind and 2.5 tonnes per MW for photovoltaics. Europe’s goal of 60,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 will require at least 192,000 tonnes of copper.
European cable construction capacity is a concern. Early movers like Germany and the Netherlands have launched significant initiatives, with TenneT issuing tenders worth nearly 30 billion euros in 2022. This led to major contracts for cable manufacturers, including 1.8 billion euros for Italy’s Prysmian and 1.7 billion euros for France’s Nexans. Nexans has warned of reduced production tool availability and a growing scarcity of copper, creating market tension.
In response, electricity grid operators are exploring alternatives and solutions, including aluminum substitution and enhanced recycling efforts. RTE in France is actively engaging with suppliers to secure copper supplies and considering in-house recycling methods.
In the U.S., studies indicate that current mining production capacities are insufficient to meet the exploding demand driven by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which supports renewable energy development. This shortage poses a significant risk to the U.S. energy transition, potentially hindering the construction of necessary infrastructure. 
