2024 Global Metal Market Forecast
BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, anticipates a slight increase in metal prices globally in 2024. This marginal improvement stems from subdued Chinese demand and a slowdown in global economic growth. Conversely, the World Bank predicts a continued decrease in metal prices from 2023, stabilizing only by 2025, while the Australian Office of Chief Economist presents a mixed outlook.
Factors Influencing Price Trends
BMI credits a weaker dollar, persistent supply constraints, and positive market sentiment as key factors driving this uptick in 2024. However, global economic growth is expected to slow down, capping the growth potential of metal prices. In contrast, the World Bank foresees a 12% decline in prices in 2023, followed by a 5% drop in 2024, citing slowed Chinese activity and improved supply conditions.
Specific Metal Price Projections
BMI expects natural gas, iron ore, tin, and aluminium to see the most significant year-on-year gains. On the other hand, zinc is projected to experience the sharpest declines. The World Bank’s Commodity Outlook indicates that copper prices will continue to fall, impacted by weakening global demand and robust supply growth.
Analysts’ Insights on Metal Markets
BMI highlights the declining strength of the dollar in late 2024 and the green energy transition as supportive factors for copper, aluminium, and tin prices. The Australian Office of the Chief Economist predicts a rise in aluminium prices, driven by demand for energy-efficient technology. Conversely, the World Bank anticipates a further reduction in aluminium prices in 2024, following a 15% drop in 2023.