Lynas will likely need to further expand its Mt Weld rare earths mine to utilize its spare cracking and leaching capacity, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. Options for acquiring unprocessed rare earths from third parties appear limited, and Lynas’s operational costs will remain higher than optimal until it can operate at full capacity. Analysts estimate that expanding Mt Weld and enhancing the miner’s separating and finishing capacity could cost between A$430 million and A$820 million (approximately $280 million to $535 million USD), potentially completing by FY29.
There are risks, including the potential non-renewal of Lynas’s Malaysia operating license beyond March 2026 and a forecasted multiyear oversupply in the rare earths market. Despite these challenges, Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Lynas to A$5.35 (approximately $3.50 USD) from A$5.20 (approximately $3.40 USD), while maintaining an underweight rating. Lynas shares were up 0.5%, trading at A$6.745 (approximately $4.42 USD). 
