On May 30, SHFE aluminum and alumina futures both saw significant increases, with alumina futures rising by 2.32% and SHFE aluminum futures climbing by 2.77%. This surge followed China’s State Council issuing the “2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan.” The plan includes key tasks such as strictly controlling the new production capacity of copper, alumina, and other smelting industries, and promoting the development of the recycled metal industry. By the end of 2025, the plan aims for recycled metal supply to constitute over 24% of the total, with aluminum water direct alloying increasing to over 90%.
Industry experts note that disruptions in overseas alumina supply continue to impact the market. Over the past two weeks, domestic aluminum inventory has risen to 767,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory has decreased to 181,000 tons. The supply shortage at the mining end limits the increase in alumina production, and the difficulty of importing alumina to meet domestic demand further supports the current strong prices of alumina. 
