Nornickel Forecasts Mixed Market Scenarios for Key Metals in 2025
Nornickel, a top Russian miner and a leading palladium and nickel producer, has outlined varying outlooks for the markets of copper, nickel, platinum, and palladium in 2025, with different factors shaping supply and demand dynamics for each metal.
Copper
The global copper market, currently experiencing a surplus of 200,000 tonnes in 2024, is expected to reach balance in 2025. Rising demand from the electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors will drive this shift. However, challenges such as industrial stagnation in Europe and uncertain economic conditions in the US could dampen demand. In addition, new steelmaking capacity of 2 million tonnes, mainly in China, will exacerbate a supply gap, as only 600,000 tonnes of new copper concentrates are anticipated to enter the market, creating difficulties for smelters.
Palladium
The palladium market, which is facing a deficit of 0.9 million troy ounces this year, is projected to achieve balance in 2025. This improvement is attributed to strong palladium production in Russia and declining automotive industry demand, as the transition away from internal combustion engines reduces the need for palladium-based emission catalysts in the US, China, and Japan.
Platinum
In contrast, the platinum market, balanced in 2024, is expected to enter a deficit in 2025, with a projected shortage of 0.2 million troy ounces. Factors driving this deficit include constrained supply and steady demand for this precious metal.
Nickel
The nickel market surplus, standing at 150,000 tonnes in 2024, will persist into 2025 due to rapid capacity expansions in Indonesia and China. These increases in supply are not matched by corresponding growth in demand from sectors such as superalloys, stainless steel, and batteries for electric vehicles. The accumulation of high-grade nickel stocks, fueled by new production in China, has significantly contributed to the surplus. By 2025, stockpiled nickel, including over-the-counter reserves, is expected to maintain the surplus at similar levels.
