China's primary aluminium output in 2023 reached a record high of 41.59 million metric tons, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, the growth rate slowed to 3.7%, continuing a trend of deceleration for the third consecutive year.
Several factors constrained China's aluminium output growth. The national aluminium production capacity is nearing a ceiling set by the government at 45 million tons, part of an initiative to control power consumption in this energy-intensive sector. As of the end of 2023, China's total annual aluminium production capacity stood at approximately 44.43 million tons.
Compounding the capacity limitations, a drought in Yunnan, China's fourth-largest aluminium-producing region, led to power shortages. The lack of sufficient hydropower supply prompted local smelters to cut back on production. This supply constraint, coupled with growing demand, especially from the renewable power sector, pushed Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium futures prices up by 9.1% in 2023.
In December 2023 alone, China produced 3.59 million tons of aluminium, marking a 4.9% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.
Beijing-based aluminium consultancy Aladdiny forecasts a rise in production for 2024. The output is expected to increase by approximately 1 million tons, or 2.4%, reaching about 42.7 million tons. This growth is anticipated due to new projects slated to begin operations in the third quarter of 2024.
Alongside aluminium, the production of 10 nonferrous metals – including copper, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium, and titanium – also hit a record high in 2023. The total output for these metals was 74.7 million tons, with December witnessing a 7.3% year-on-year increase to 6.59 million tons.
