The European Union and the United States may soon find themselves in a competitive race for aluminum from the Middle East if imports of the metal from Russia are prohibited. This situation could significantly affect Western companies across transport, packaging, and construction industries due to likely inflationary pressures. According to Reuters, the anticipated increase in demand for aluminum from Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE and Bahrain, is expected to result in price surges reminiscent of those experienced in 2018 following US sanctions against Rusal, a major Russian aluminum producer.
Middle Eastern producers contributed to nearly 9% of global aluminum shipments last year, totaling 6.2 million tonnes of metal, with Europe and the US receiving about 2 million tonnes. Forecasts suggest that excluding Russian aluminum could create a deficit of approximately 500,000 tonnes in Europe, a gap not easily bridged by quickly pivoting to Middle Eastern suppliers.
While the EU has debated sanctions and a potential ban on Russian aluminum for several months, the recent 13th package of sanctions did not target this sector. However, sources indicate that the EU may soon introduce new measures with additional restrictions, underscoring the growing strategic importance of aluminum in global markets, particularly for electric vehicle production.
