Massive Copper Supply Boost Needed for Global EV Shift by 2050

A recent study by the International Energy Forum (IEF) highlights the necessity for a substantial increase in new copper mines to meet the demand created by global vehicle electrification by 2050. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require 55% more copper mines to come online, underlining a significant gap between current production rates and future demand.

The study, led by Dr. Lawrence Cathles of Cornell University and Dr. Adam Simon of the University of Michigan, reveals that the current copper production rates are insufficient to meet the soaring demand driven by the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). The world needs to mine at least 115% more copper than all that was mined before 2018 to sustain business-as-usual trends.

The IEF report details that annual copper mine output is projected to increase by 82% by 2050, from 20.4 million metric tons (Mt) to 37.1Mt. Despite this increase, the demand for copper, particularly under net-zero scenarios, outpaces supply significantly. Meeting the net-zero target requires 194 new mines by 2050, or six new mines annually, whereas maintaining current trends demands 35 new mines.

The study emphasizes the difficulty in achieving these targets, noting that their projections are optimistic. If copper recycling rates do not improve from 2018 levels, the number of new mines needed to meet even baseline demand rises to 43.

Additionally, the goal of 100% EV manufacturing by 2035 presents another challenge. This transition requires an unprecedented departure from current mining practices, necessitating an additional 8.1Mt of copper by 2035 and 9.6Mt by 2040.

While Earth holds sufficient copper resources, the challenge lies in extracting these resources quickly enough. The study points out that new copper mines that began production between 2019 and 2022 took an average of 23 years from discovery to operation.

In light of these challenges, the authors suggest hybrid vehicles as a more feasible interim solution. Hybrid electric vehicles require only 29 kg of copper, compared to 60 kg for fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Transitioning to 100% hybrid vehicle manufacturing by 2035 would slightly exceed baseline copper demand and avoid major grid improvements.

“This is not a perfect solution, but it is a much more resource realistic one,” the authors concluded.