Fitch Adjusts Metal Price Forecasts Amid Market Changes
In a recent report, Fitch Ratings revised its forecasts for global metal prices, reflecting shifts in market dynamics and geopolitical factors. The international rating agency has raised its price expectations for gold and copper in 2024 but has taken a more cautious stance on nickel and aluminium.
For gold, Fitch now anticipates a price of $1,900 per troy ounce in 2024, an increase from its previous forecast of $1,800. The price is expected to adjust to $1,800 per troy ounce in 2025 and further to $1,600 in 2026. The upward revision reflects a higher geopolitical risk premium, acknowledging gold's status as a safe haven asset amidst uncertain global conditions.
Copper prices have also seen a positive adjustment for 2024, with Fitch predicting $8,400 per tonne, up from an earlier estimate of $8,300. However, forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at $8,000 and $7,500 per tonne, respectively. This increase for 2024 is attributed to supply disruptions and lower production forecasts, coupled with a resurgence in demand, which is expected to result in a market deficit. Fitch notes that copper inventory levels are currently at very low levels.
Conversely, the outlook for aluminium has been slightly reduced for 2024 to $2,300 per tonne from a prior forecast of $2,350 per tonne. While the forecast for 2025 stays at $2,400 per tonne, the projection for 2026 has been elevated to $2,300 from $2,200. This adjustment mirrors the recent dip in aluminium prices, although Fitch remains optimistic about a gradual price recovery driven by renewed demand.
Nickel forecasts have been scaled back to $17,000 per tonne for 2024 (down from $18,000) and to $16,000 per tonne for 2025 (previously $17,000). The 2026 forecast holds steady at $15,000 per tonne. Despite the lower price expectations, Fitch anticipates an uptick in nickel demand, spurred by growth in the battery and stainless steel sectors.
