At the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, commodity trading giant Trafigura forecasted a significant surge in copper demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, predicting an additional demand of up to one million metric tons by 2030. This surge is expected to deepen the already anticipated supply deficits towards the decade’s end.
Saad Rahim, Trafigura’s chief economist, highlighted the burgeoning demand originating from data centers and AI technologies, emphasizing that this demand is set to further strain the global copper supply, which is already facing a projected deficit gap of four to five million tons by 2030. This anticipated increase has not been widely accounted for in current supply and demand projections.
The global demand for copper, essential for electrical applications and a cornerstone of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles, is poised to escalate as initiatives to reduce carbon emissions gain momentum. With current global copper demand estimated at around 26 million tons for this year, and forecasts indicating a market deficit potentially exceeding 100,000 tons by 2025, the additional demand from AI and data centers could significantly impact the copper market dynamics.
China’s predominant role as the leading producer and consumer of copper, along with its dominance in the supply of other critical industrial metals necessary for the energy transition, has raised concerns among Western leaders aiming to achieve net zero emissions targets. The possibility of geopolitical tensions hindering the green transition was also discussed, with Beata Javorcik, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s chief economist, expressing apprehension over the geopolitical landscape’s impact on the availability and distribution of critical raw materials, such as rare earths and graphite, vital for electric vehicle batteries. 
