China’s Aluminum Output Climbs Amid Capacity Adjustments
In November 2024, domestic aluminum production in China increased by 2.74% year-on-year (YoY), according to SMM statistics. Cumulative production for the January-November period rose by 3.86% YoY. Despite the overall growth, some aluminum smelters faced challenges such as pot maintenance due to high pot age and environmental protection-related production cuts during the winter season.
While production cut plans and rising alumina costs pushed some enterprises into maintenance, new and resumed projects in regions like Sichuan and Xinjiang slightly offset these reductions. Daily aluminum production for November showed only a marginal increase compared to the previous month. Additionally, casting ingot production rose by 2.93% YoY to approximately 956,500 metric tons, while the proportion of liquid aluminum decreased by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month (MoM) but remained flat YoY.
As of the end of November, SMM reported that the total capacity of China’s aluminum smelters stood at approximately 45.71 million metric tons, with an operating capacity of 43.68 million metric tons. The industry’s operating rate increased by 0.46 percentage points YoY, reaching 95.56%. Capacity gains were primarily driven by new project ramp-ups in Xinjiang and production resumption in Sichuan and Guizhou, while reductions stemmed from environmental protection-driven cuts in Henan and technical maintenance in Chongqing and Guangxi.
Looking ahead to December, further capacity increases are anticipated due to ongoing ramp-ups and resumptions. However, maintenance activities at a Guangxi aluminum smelter, impacting 100,000 metric tons annually, and small-scale maintenance in Sichuan and Chongqing are expected to temper the growth. SMM predicts that annualized operating capacity will reach 43.69 million metric tons by the end of December. Despite these developments, December’s traditional off-season and weaker downstream demand may result in production cuts at some billet plants, with the proportion of liquid aluminum expected to adjust to around 72%.
