Global Gold Production to Peak in 2024 Before Entering Prolonged Decline
Global gold production is projected to reach an all-time high of approximately 3,250 tonnes (105 million ounces) in 2024 before entering a period of sustained decline, according to industry experts speaking at The Northern Miner’s International Metals Symposium in London on December 2.
From 2025 onward, factors such as depleting reserves, declining ore grades, and the closure of aging mines are expected to drive the downturn in gold output. CRU Consulting analyst Oliver Blagden noted that despite strong profitability due to high gold prices, the lack of new investments could lead to a steep drop in production, tightening supply and reshaping global markets.
“This will be the most gold we’ve ever mined in a single year,” Blagden said, emphasizing the historic nature of the anticipated peak. Even if all planned projects proceed, production could decline by as much as 17% by 2030, he added.
China, the world’s largest gold producer, contributes 11% of global output but faces modest reserves relative to its production rate, raising concerns about future supply constraints. Similarly, Russia’s production faces challenges from geopolitical pressures and diminishing ore quality.
In contrast, Blagden highlighted opportunities in regions like Argentina, where mining-friendly reforms could encourage development. The United States also shows potential for policy shifts that may streamline permitting processes. However, North America remains the highest-cost region for gold mining globally, which could temper growth.
Jurisdictional risks, such as resource nationalism, add complexity for miners. Blagden pointed to increased nationalization of mining operations in West African countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, which has deterred foreign investment and disrupted supply chains.
Profitable but Vulnerable
Despite these challenges, the gold mining industry remains highly profitable, with 97% of producers operating with positive margins at a gold price of $2,235 per ounce. The average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin stands at 47%, reflecting strong financial health across the sector.
However, Blagden warned that high profitability has not spurred sufficient investment in greenfield exploration projects, leading to a “deficit in new discoveries.” He emphasized the need for decisive action to sustain long-term production, including strategic acquisitions and brownfield expansions.
Gold’s role as an accumulated commodity sets it apart from consumable metals like copper or lithium. Blagden pointed out that if mining ceased today, above-ground stockpiles could meet fabrication demand for 75 years. Central bank purchases, which reached record levels in 2023, continue to support prices, currently at $2,626.20 per ounce.
Blagden urged the industry to leverage the current period of high profitability to invest in exploration and project development. Without new initiatives, the decline in production could lead to tighter supplies and shrinking profits.
“The industry must seize this window of opportunity to ensure long-term viability,” he said, emphasizing the importance of extending mine life and developing new resources.
