Japanese Aluminium Premiums Expected to Stay Above $200 in 2025
Japanese buyers are likely to face aluminium premiums above $200 per metric ton throughout 2025 due to tightening supply in Asia, according to trading house Marubeni Corp. Japan, a key aluminium importer, sets the regional benchmark for primary metal shipment premiums, agreed quarterly over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price.
In the current quarter, Japanese premiums have increased to $175 per ton, up 1.7% from the previous quarter, amid supply concerns and rising premiums in Europe. For January-March 2025 shipments, some buyers have already agreed to pay premiums as high as $228 per ton, marking a 30% rise from current levels and the highest rate since 2015, according to sources directly involved in negotiations.
Marubeni projects premiums in the first quarter of 2025 to range between $220-$255 per ton, with values staying between $200 and $300 for the remainder of the year. Eisuke Akasaka, general manager of Marubeni's light metals section, attributed the rise to factors such as increased Russian metal inflows into China, disruptions in Middle Eastern logistics, and a shift in market power caused by Japanese companies exiting aluminium smelting operations.
Earlier this year, Sumitomo Chemical sold its stakes in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters and Boyne Smelters in Australia to Rio Tinto. Similarly, Mitsubishi Corp divested its 11.65% stake in Boyne Smelters to Rio Tinto.
Akasaka added that China's recent suspension of export tax refunds for aluminium semi-finished products is likely to exacerbate supply shortages in the broader Asian market outside China, keeping Japanese premiums elevated.
Marubeni forecasts aluminium prices to average $2,700 per ton in 2025, with prices potentially reaching $3,000 per ton by year-end as production in China nears its capacity limits.
