Russian mining giant Nornickel presents 3 scenarios for green transition to 2050

Who

The Russian diversified mining company Norilsk Nickel has outlined three scenarios for economic growth, energy transition and climate change for the next three decades.

The three scenarios, presented in November during the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in Egypt, are based on the global temperature projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Sustainable Palladium scenario, seen as the baseline, implies the sustainability of current social, economic and technological trends. The “greener” Rapid Transformation scenario is based on the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement — something seen as unlikely even by most optimistic analysts. The Global Growth scenario, meanwhile, envisages continuous reliance on hydrocarbons, mainly in developing countries.

Why it matters

Metals and mining companies need long-term vision to predict demand for commodities they produce. Nornickel will use these scenarios for strategic planning, to assess risks and identify opportunities emerging from the global energy transition, and to adapt to climate change.

“The climate change agenda remains highly relevant to us. We are now building a system of climate risk assessment in accordance with global best practices,” said Vladimir Zhukov, Nornickel’s vice president for investor relations and sustainable development.
“Using the long-term climate and social and economic scenarios for the global economy is key to adapting to the physical risks of climate change, as well as risks associated with the global energy transition,” he explained. “At the same time, we believe that the latter also presents an opportunity for us, as the global demand for Nornickel’s green metals is expected to grow, while our nickel products enjoy the lowest carbon footprint in the industry”.