Global Platinum Deficit Looms Despite South Africa’s Increased Output
Despite an increase in production from South African platinum producers, the global platinum market is expected to remain in deficit in 2024, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WIPC). South African producers such as Impala Platinum (Implats), Sibanye-Stillwater, Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), and Wesizwe Platinum have been restructuring their operations in response to low prices for platinum group metals (PGMs). This has involved closing unprofitable shafts, laying off workers, and cutting back on capital expenditure for new projects.
In the second quarter of 2024, global refined platinum mine supply increased by 4% year-on-year to 1.5 million ounces, largely driven by a 7% increase in South African output, which reached 1.1 million ounces. This growth from South Africa helped offset declines in other regions. However, restructuring and cost-cutting measures, including job reductions and deferred capital projects, are expected to result in a 2% decrease in total South African platinum production by the end of the year.
The WIPC estimates that South Africa's PGM industry will reduce its workforce by around 10,000 employees in 2024, representing a 6% reduction. Despite meeting production targets so far, the industry's declining workforce and reduced investment in infrastructure could negatively impact future production.
The overall global supply of mined platinum is forecast to fall by 2% year-on-year to 5.5 million ounces, with a projected decline in both South African and Russian production. South African supply is expected to drop by 2% to 3.8 million ounces, driven by restructuring efforts aimed at mitigating the impact of low PGM prices.
Although South African platinum production has faced long-term challenges, declining at a compound annual growth rate of 1.7% since 2006, the WIPC projects that global platinum market demand will rise by 3% to 8.1 million ounces this year. The market deficit is expected to reach 1 million ounces.
Investment demand for platinum is forecast at 517,000 ounces for 2024, fueled by ETF inflows and strong demand for bars and coins in China. Additionally, demand for platinum in the automotive sector is projected to reach a seven-year high of 3.3 million ounces, while industrial demand is expected to grow by 1%.
