Nickel Prices Rise Over 9% in April Amid Supply Challenges and Strong Demand
In April, nickel prices saw a significant increase of more than 9%, driven by rising non-ferrous metal prices and strong market fundamentals. The main contradiction between nickel supply and demand is expected to shift, leading to continued strong price fluctuations in the short term.
The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts have introduced fluctuations in market expectations, with concerns about recession risks and declining demand. The Fed's recent interest rate decisions aligned with market expectations, while April's U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short, prompting increased bets on rate cuts this year. These expected rate cuts are likely to continue influencing the market. In the short term, a weakening U.S. dollar index has slightly boosted non-ferrous metal prices. In April, the significant rebound in manufacturing data from major economies supported non-ferrous metal prices. However, as manufacturing slows, market concerns about demand have increased, leading to differentiated price trends among non-ferrous metals.
Since 2024, Indonesia's slow progress in nickel ore approval has continued to impact the market. Although Indonesian officials expected to complete the approval process by the end of March, progress has been sluggish, affecting nickel ore supply. Despite this, Indonesia issued a new mining license to PT Vale Indonesia in late April, indicating ongoing approvals. Meanwhile, the Philippines significantly increased its nickel ore supply in April, but shipping rates to domestic markets have risen, reaching over $14 per ton by the end of the month. Combined with rising domestic NPI (New Product Introduction) prices, CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight) prices for Philippine nickel laterite ore may increase in May. These factors provide strong cost support for nickel products.
In April, national refined nickel production reached 25,900 tons, up 4% year-on-year. From January to April, cumulative national refined nickel output was 100,700 tons, a 46% increase year-on-year. The continuous production increase has led to an accumulation of domestic refined nickel. However, refined nickel produced from purchased raw materials remains generally unprofitable due to strong market fluctuations supporting raw material prices. China’s refined nickel imports have continued to fall, while exports have fluctuated upwards, making China a key exporter of refined nickel. LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel warehouse receipts from China now account for about 10% of the total inventory. Globally, refined nickel production has varied, with Russian nickel production decreasing by about 10% year-on-year, Canon nickel production increasing by 14%, and Vale nickel production decreasing by 4%.
Stainless steel production has continued to grow in 2024. From January to April, China’s stainless steel output is expected to exceed 11.6 million tons, up nearly 8% year-on-year. Indonesia’s stainless steel production also grew significantly, increasing by nearly 37% year-on-year.
Stainless steel production in May is expected to continue growing slightly. The recovery in stainless steel prices in April, along with improved profits, has positively impacted nickel demand. Current raw material supply and macro-environmental changes suggest adjustments in the market’s expectations of nickel pig iron supply and demand surplus. The tolerance for nickel pig iron prices has improved, leading to price fluctuation rebounds, which positively affect the nickel industry chain. China’s apparent consumption of stainless steel has significantly improved year-on-year, despite high domestic stainless steel futures inventory levels.
In the first quarter, raw material restocking and tightening nickel sulfate supply boosted nickel sulfate prices. In May, continued restocking demand from ternary precursor enterprises is expected to provide positive feedback for nickel sulfate prices.
In April, nickel prices rose significantly due to macro and micro factors. Looking ahead to May, downstream demand is expected to improve, and macroeconomic conditions may shift. The market is anticipated to see continued strong fluctuations in nickel prices.
