New Trade Policies Could Add Volatility to Record Alumina Output

The global alumina production in October hit a record high of 12.61 million tonnes, representing a 5.6% surge over the previous month's output of 11.94 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). This figure also marks a 3.62% increase compared to October last year, reflecting growth across all major producing regions.

The daily average production in October reached 407,000 tonnes, up from 398,000 tonnes in September and 393,000 tonnes in October 2023, setting a new record. The IAI noted that this trend of month-on-month and year-on-year growth in alumina production is typical for this period, indicating consistent performance across the industry. Historical data from the Institute shows that global alumina production has consistently exceeded 12 million tonnes every October since 2022.

The ongoing gap between supply and demand in the alumina market may widen further with new trade policies, such as China’s cancellation of aluminium export tax rebates and the United States' plans to increase tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. These measures are expected to introduce volatility into the market, impacting both upstream and downstream segments of the aluminium industry.

Last month, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, both significant trading partners and major suppliers of aluminium and steel to the United States. Additionally, an extra 10% duty will be placed on all products sourced from China, further straining trade relations.

In a related development, Saint-Gobain Ceramics & Plastics, Inc., a U.S.-based company, filed a petition this week seeking to impose antidumping and countervailing duties on sol-gel alumina-based ceramic abrasive grains from China. The move aims to address what the company describes as unfair trade practices that have negatively impacted the U.S. abrasive grain market.