African Lithium Production Set to Surge Amid Price Fluctuations
After a year of declining lithium prices due to a surplus market, some analysts are optimistic that the market will recover by 2030. For African nations, keeping development on schedule will be critical as they look to capitalize on the anticipated resurgence. Countries such as Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and others are positioning themselves to increase lithium production significantly in the coming years.
According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2024, lithium production in Africa could grow fivefold by 2030, representing a 400% increase. The agency attributes this potential growth to production efforts in Zimbabwe and new discoveries in Nigeria. By 2030, lithium output in Africa is expected to reach 53,000 tonnes under a baseline scenario, with the possibility of rising to 70,000 tonnes under more favorable conditions.
Lithium mining in Africa is still a relatively recent phenomenon. Production in Zimbabwe has recently intensified, with about 9,000 tonnes of lithium exported annually in concentrate form, primarily derived from various hard rock ores. The IEA's report also highlights the presence of informal artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) activities in Nigeria, as well as emerging projects in countries such as Ethiopia, Mali, Namibia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Ghana.
Although the lithium boom in Africa has been anticipated for several years, many projects have faced delays. Ecofin Pro's database shows that while countries like Mali, Ghana, and the DRC have made progress with their lithium initiatives, Zimbabwe remains the continent's only industrial-scale producer. The global lithium market has also experienced volatility; while prices soared to over $70,000 per tonne in 2022 amid strong demand forecasts, they have since dropped to around $11,000 per tonne by September 2024, as production outpaced demand.
Despite this drop, the long-term outlook for lithium remains positive. The IEA predicts that by 2030, the demand for lithium will surge, particularly driven by the clean energy sector, which is expected to need around 616,000 tonnes of lithium by that year, compared to 92,000 tonnes in 2023. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence suggests that the first signs of a lithium shortage could appear by 2025, potentially driving prices back up.
For African countries, adhering to development timelines is essential if they want to capitalize on future opportunities. Should nations like Mali, the DRC, or Ghana join the ranks of lithium producers by 2030, they will still face strong competition from established producers. Australia, China, and Chile are expected to remain the top three lithium producers by the end of the decade, according to the IEA.
