The global platinum deficit in 2024 is projected to reach 682,000 troy ounces, significantly lower than the previously anticipated 1 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). For 2025, the shortage is forecast to narrow further to 539,000 troy ounces, attributed to the depletion of COMEX warehouse reserves and increased production in South Africa.
The automotive industry remains the primary driver of platinum demand. Although demand from automakers is expected to decline by 3% to 3.173 million troy ounces in 2024, it is forecast to rise by 2% in 2025, reaching 3.245 million troy ounces—the highest level in eight years. Industrial consumption of platinum, however, is likely to drop by 1% this year and by 9% next year. Meanwhile, platinum jewelry demand is showing signs of recovery in China, India, and North America. Investment in platinum bullion is expected to decline by 1% in 2024 but rise by 7% in 2025.
WPIC’s estimates do not account for potential setbacks in South African platinum production caused by energy grid failures and operational disruptions. If such issues persist, the 2025 deficit could widen to between 600,000 and 650,000 troy ounces.
China has intensified its trade war with the United States by banning exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony—critical materials for electronics and defense. The move follows US restrictions on supplying semiconductors and related technology to China.
This export ban is expected to significantly impact American companies reliant on these materials for manufacturing electronic devices, optical instruments, and ammunition. Gallium, a byproduct of bauxite, and germanium, derived from coal, are predominantly produced in China, which accounts for almost all global output. In 2023, China’s gallium production reached 600 tonnes, of which 9.4 tonnes were imported by the US. The absence of viable alternatives means American buyers will face elevated prices and supply chain disruptions for these critical metals.
Plans by the Norwegian government to initiate deep-sea mining operations have been delayed due to opposition from the Socialist Left Party and environmental groups. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has hinted at revisiting the initiative in exchange for support on other legislative priorities.
The proposed exploration, covering 280,000 square kilometers in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas, aims to reduce Norway’s reliance on critical metal imports from China. These seabed deposits could include rare earths, zinc, copper, and cobalt—vital for renewable energy and electronic industries. However, environmental concerns regarding the impact on marine ecosystems have stalled progress.
Norway’s interest mirrors earlier attempts by other nations, such as the ill-fated Solwara-1 project by Canada’s Nautilus Minerals, which sought to mine deep-sea copper and gold deposits but ended in bankruptcy. Despite the current setbacks, the growing demand for metals may revive interest in deep-sea mining in the future.
Rio Tinto has partnered with Fortum, Vargas, Mitsubishi, and Finnish Industry Investment to establish a low-carbon aluminium smelter in Finland. The consortium plans to leverage Fortum’s renewable energy resources and Rio Tinto’s low-emission AP60 electrolyser technology.
The project, currently in the feasibility study stage, marks a significant step in Europe’s efforts to develop sustainable aluminium production. If realized, the smelter would consume approximately 7 terawatt hours of electricity annually. This initiative follows Rio Tinto’s recent $1.1 billion expansion of its Canadian AP60 smelter, boosting its aluminium production capacity to 220,000 tonnes per year. Success in Finland could pave the way for further expansion in Europe, challenging competitors like Norsk Hydro.
US-based startup Still Bright is advancing its electrochemical reduction leaching technology, which promises to extract up to 99% of copper from primary sulphide ores without harmful emissions. The company plans to commercialize its process by 2026.
Competitors like Jetti Resources and Chile’s Ceibo are also innovating in copper leaching, focusing on catalysts and optimized heap leaching techniques, respectively. These advancements aim to address the rising demand for copper in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors. Analysts predict copper consumption could triple by 2040, driving further research into cost-effective and environmentally sustainable extraction methods.
Metals Market Update: November 25 – 29Rusal has announced plans to reduce primary aluminium output by 250,000 tonnes (or 6% of its annual production) due to the rapid increase in alumina prices, which have been outpacing aluminium prices on stock exchanges. The company is forced to buy more than a third of its required alumina on the world market, significantly impacting its profitability. Over the past months, alumina prices have nearly doubled, exceeding $700 per tonne. As a result, the share of alumina in Rusal’s aluminium production costs has risen to over 50%, compared to the usual 30-35%.
Rusal has faced long-standing difficulties in securing alumina supply and has struggled to resolve them. In 2022, the company lost supplies from Ukraine and Australia, which previously accounted for around 40% of its alumina consumption. Supplies from its Aughinish facility in Ireland are also restricted.
To cover its raw material needs, Rusal acquired a 30% stake in Hebei Wenfeng New Materials in 2024, gaining a share of its alumina production, which amounts to approximately 1.4 million tonnes annually. Despite completing this deal, Rusal still faces a shortfall and may need to acquire an additional 1.5-2 million tonnes of alumina from the global market.
Rusal has not disclosed which smelters will reduce output, but it is likely to be the Kandalaksha, Volgograd, and Novokuznetsk aluminium smelters, which are among the least profitable. The company’s focus on primary aluminium production, such as the construction of the Taishet aluminium smelter, has contributed to its current challenges, as it has not expanded alumina production capacity in recent years. The proposed 4.8 million tonnes per year alumina refinery in the Leningrad region also faces uncertainty due to Rusal’s heavy debt load and high interest rates on loans. If the situation does not improve, Rusal may be forced to close some smelters, losing up to 500,000 tonnes of aluminium production.
The Saudi government has agreed to the terms of nine deals related to non-ferrous metal extraction and processing, worth more than $9 billion. These projects are expected to help diversify the Saudi economy, which remains overly dependent on hydrocarbon exports.
India’s Vedanta Resources plans to build two plants in Saudi Arabia: one to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper annually, and another to produce up to 300,000 tonnes of copper rod per year. In addition, China’s Zijin Group plans to execute a series of projects, starting with a metallurgical plant capable of producing up to 100,000 tonnes of zinc and 200,000 tonnes of sulphuric acid annually. The second project will involve producing 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year, and the third will be a facility for 200,000 tonnes of copper cathodes and 50,000 tonnes of electrolytic copper foil per year.
Furthermore, Australia’s Hastings Technology Metals and Canada’s Platinum Group Metals have ambitious projects planned. Platinum Group Metals aims to produce rare earth elements, while Hastings Technology Metals will focus on platinum metals.
Currently, Saudi Arabia’s non-ferrous metals industry is represented by Maaden, which owns a bauxite mine, an alumina refinery, and an aluminium smelter. More than 15 years ago, Mubadala Development and Dubai Aluminum signed memoranda of understanding to build a 700,000 tonnes per annum aluminium smelter in King Abdulla Economic City, with the potential to double capacity. Malaysia’s MMC International Holdings, Saudi Binladin Group, and Aluminum Corporation of China also signed an agreement to construct a similar facility in Jizan Economic City.
Portuguese energy company Galp has decided to abandon its plan to build a lithium plant in Setubal, which would have involved capital investments exceeding $1 billion. The commissioning of the plant was initially scheduled for early 2026.
Galp’s decision comes after its partner, Swedish electric car battery manufacturer Northvolt, ran into severe financial difficulties. The two companies formed a joint venture three years ago to build the lithium plant, and Galp also agreed to acquire a 10% stake in the Mina do Barroso project from British company Savannah Resources, aiming to secure 100,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate annually.
However, Northvolt’s negotiations with creditors and investors—including Volkswagen and Goldman Sachs—fell through, forcing the company into bankruptcy. Galp could not find a suitable replacement for Northvolt and thus decided to put the project on hold. This decision may slow down the European Union’s efforts to develop domestic lithium resources and reduce reliance on lithium imports from China.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a long-term shortage of copper ore feedstock for the global copper industry. Current exploration, development, and mining projects are estimated to meet only 70% of the projected copper demand by 2035.
However, the availability of scrap copper is expected to increase. By 2030, the collection of scrap is forecasted to reach 19 million tonnes, up from the current 16 million tonnes, and by 2050, supply could grow to 27 million tonnes. Despite this increase, scrap copper will only be able to cover 75% of estimated demand. The resulting shortage could lead to a reduction in recycling discounts as early as next year.
China will retain its position as the largest consumer of copper scrap, with its output of recycled copper reaching 3 million tonnes last year, primarily using raw materials imported from the US. Historically, the global copper industry has relied heavily on concentrates, and scrap consumption has stagnated for nine consecutive years. However, given the increasing demand from electric vehicles and energy storage systems, scrap supply is expected to rise significantly between 2030 and 2050.
The IEA’s forecast aligns with expectations from BHP Group, which attributes the potential copper shortage to rising costs of deposit development and falling copper grades in ores. Essentially, the era of “easy” copper projects is over.
Swedish engineering company ABB has announced an expanded partnership with steelmaker Boliden to supply low-carbon zinc for ABB’s power distribution systems. Under their ongoing cooperation, Boliden uses renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions in its zinc production process. Boliden currently has a carbon footprint of only 1 kilogram per 1 kilogram of zinc, compared to the global industry average of 3.6 kilograms.
Boliden supplies zinc for the production of galvanized rolled products, which ABB uses to manufacture power distribution systems such as transformers. These systems can be installed in mines and steel mills, helping to reduce the carbon footprint of these facilities.
ABB and Boliden have a long-standing partnership aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of electrical products. In December 2022, they agreed to collaborate on using low-carbon copper for electric motors. This alliance is currently unique in the global non-ferrous metals industry, but other power distribution manufacturers may follow ABB’s lead in the long term.
Metals Market Update: November 18 – 22Swedish metallurgical company Boliden is in negotiations with Lundin Mining to acquire two zinc mines: Zinkgruvan in Sweden and Neves-Corvo in Portugal. Last year, Zinkgruvan produced 76,349 tonnes of ore (in terms of pure zinc), while Neves-Corvo produced 108,812 tonnes.
For Lundin Mining, the sale aligns with its business transformation strategy, which focuses on developing copper projects in South America. In contrast, for Boliden, copper remains the key metal, while zinc takes a secondary role. In the first nine months of this year, Boliden produced 312,900 tonnes of copper anodes and 116,400 tonnes of cathodes, compared to 341,000 tonnes of zinc.
Currently, Boliden extracts zinc ore at only two of its facilities: Tara in Ireland and Garpenberg in Sweden. In January-September 2024, zinc ore extraction amounted to 122,400 tonnes, with the remaining volumes sourced from third-party suppliers. By acquiring Zinkgruvan and Neves-Corvo, Boliden will strengthen its raw material base and expand zinc production, which is in high demand among European manufacturers of galvanized rolled products and hot-dip galvanized steel structures.
Global primary aluminium consumption is expected to grow by 3.2% to 70.35 million tonnes by the end of 2024, while supply will increase by 1.9% to 70.6 million tonnes, according to BMI forecasts. Despite a surplus of aluminium on the global market, prices are anticipated to remain high until the end of the year, averaging $2,450 per tonne (currently above $2,600). The aluminium surplus is projected to decrease from 384,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2024 to 96,000 tonnes by year-end.
BMI analysts attribute the rise in aluminium demand to the expansion of renewable energy initiatives, particularly in China, the world’s largest aluminium consumer. Looking ahead, BMI expects aluminium prices to rise further due to increased demand driven by the shift to green energy and potential disruptions in the supply of raw materials for aluminium smelters.
Additionally, China’s Ministry of Finance recently announced the termination of the 13% export tax rebate on aluminium products, effective December 1. This is expected to reduce exports of aluminium flat-rolled products and profiles, which may lead to lower production volumes and potentially affect the overall aluminium market.
As aluminium is classified as a critical metal in the US, Canada, and the European Union, their governments may incentivize domestic projects for production and usage. Overall, BMI forecasts global aluminium output could reach 88.2 million tonnes by 2033.
China’s largest battery manufacturer, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), intends to start producing next-generation sodium-ion batteries next year. These new batteries are expected to have an energy density of 200Wh per kg, compared to the previous versions, which struggled to reach 100Wh per kg. While sodium-ion batteries are still behind lithium-ion batteries, which have an energy density of 300Wh per kg, they offer other advantages.
According to CATL representatives, sodium-ion batteries can operate at low temperatures (as low as -40 degrees Celsius), unlike lithium-ion batteries, which face issues in cold climates. Additionally, sodium-ion batteries pose a lower fire risk, making them safer. Sodium-ion technology has been considered an alternative to lithium-ion because sodium is abundant and can be extracted from common rock salt, making the unit cost lower if large-scale production is achieved.
CATL’s competitors are also investing in sodium-ion technology. BYD, for example, aims to achieve a cost of materials for sodium-ion batteries comparable to that of lithium-ion by 2025, making them an attractive option for electric vehicle manufacturers.
Canadian company Tirex Resources has submitted a request to the Albanian government to convert several mineral exploration concessions, following the completion of exploration activities in the Mirdita district. Located in central Albania, the Mirdita district contains deposits of copper, gold, silver, and zinc, formed by geothermal activity from ancient volcanoes.
Tirex Resources has identified copper, zinc, and gold deposits of interest and plans to develop them in partnership with Turkish company Ekin Maden. In March, the two companies agreed to cooperate, with Tirex Resources bringing six deposits in Mirdita into the partnership, while Ekin Maden will finance their development and the construction of the mine.
Albania holds deposits of copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, gold, and silver, and has potential for platinum and bauxite reserves. However, these resources remain largely untapped. As a candidate member of the European Union since 2009, Albania has been pursuing policies to attract foreign investment, which could support the EU’s goal of reducing its reliance on imported critical metals. Consequently, various companies may seek to develop Albania’s deposits of non-ferrous and precious metals in the coming years.
A possible escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and China could worsen the trade war between the two countries, affecting the US military. China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, a critical element used in armor-piercing ammunition, night vision devices, and batteries. According to the US Geological Survey, China produced 40,000 tonnes of antimony in 2023, while the world’s total production was 83,000 tonnes. The US has no domestic antimony production.
If the Chinese government restricts antimony exports, the US defense industry will struggle to find an adequate substitute. Concerns about stable antimony supply have been voiced previously, and the recent halt in Russian antimony exports has only exacerbated the situation, as Russia is also one of the leading producers of the element. This year, global antimony prices have risen by 200%, with further increases expected.
In response, US companies are seeking to acquire antimony deposits. Military Metals, for instance, has three projects in Canada and Slovakia. Another competitor, Perpetua Resources, is finalizing a $1.86 billion government loan for its Stibnite Gold project, which includes antimony resources. Despite these efforts, it is unlikely that antimony mining and processing will be established quickly enough to mitigate the current dependency on China, meaning the US defense industry will continue to rely on Chinese supplies for the foreseeable future.
Events, Trends and Forecasts: 11– 15 NovemberThe official groundbreaking ceremony for the Mazoon Copper project, a copper ore mining and beneficiation facility, has taken place in Oman, with Minerals Development Oman as the investor. The general contractor is the Canadian firm Lycopodium, which will provide all the necessary engineering, procurement, and construction management services.
The project will involve the development of five open pits, from which copper ore will be delivered to a concentrator capable of processing 2.5 million tonnes of ore per year, yielding 115,000 tonnes of copper concentrate at an average grade of 21.5% copper. The Mazoon Copper project has reserves of 22.9 million tonnes of copper ore. Construction of the mine is expected to begin in Q1 of next year, with copper concentrate production slated to start in Q1 2027.
The Mazoon Copper project will make a significant contribution to restructuring Oman’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on copper mining and exports. In 2016, the Omani government began efforts to diversify the economy by developing manufacturing industries, including non-ferrous metals. With this project, Oman aims to become a notable production center for copper concentrate to supply international consumers, although it will not displace key suppliers such as Chile in the global market.
Nornickel is considering establishing its planned copper smelter in Fangchenggang, a port city on the southern coast of China. Negotiations are currently underway to select an appropriate site for the facility.
Nornickel’s plans call for a smelter with a capacity of 500,000 tonnes of copper per year, using concentrate supplied from Russia. However, Fangchenggang already hosts a metallurgical plant owned by the state-owned Jinchuan Group, which has a capacity of 600,000 tonnes of copper annually.
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of copper. In the long term, copper demand in China is expected to grow significantly, driven by electric vehicle production, electronic equipment, solar and wind power plant construction, and grid infrastructure. The proposed Nornickel plant would thus be located at the heart of the world’s largest copper consumption center. Moreover, the Chinese market could also provide demand for by-products such as sulfuric acid, produced during copper smelting, which can be used for fertilizer production.
In the first nine months of this year, copper imports from Russia to China amounted to 165,000 tonnes, highlighting the importance of trade between the two countries in meeting China’s growing copper needs.
PT Vale Indonesia, a subsidiary of Brazilian mining giant Vale, plans to construct a plant on the island of Sulawesi that will process lateritic nickel ores using high-pressure acid leaching technology. The project, with an estimated cost of $1.4 billion, aims to produce 60,000 tonnes of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) annually, equivalent to pure nickel.
The new facility will have zero carbon emissions, aligning with Vale’s efforts to meet stricter environmental regulations in key markets such as the US, EU, and China. The general contractor for the project will be the Chinese company GEM, which has signed an official cooperation agreement with PT Vale Indonesia. The agreement also includes a $40 million investment in a research and development center, as well as $30 million for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) projects, including landscaping and waste treatment facilities.
Vale’s broader plans include quadrupling nickel production over the next decade to meet growing demand from electric vehicle battery and electronics manufacturers while minimizing the environmental impact of its operations.
Canada’s Li-Cycle Holdings has signed an agreement with the US Department of Energy to secure a $475 million loan. The funds will be used for the Rochester Hub project, which aims to build a facility to recycle spent lithium-ion batteries, producing battery-grade lithium carbonate and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) containing nickel, cobalt, and manganese.
Once the hydrometallurgical plant reaches full capacity, Li-Cycle plans to produce up to 8,250 tonnes of lithium carbonate and 72,000 tonnes of MHP annually. The company has already signed an agreement with international trader Glencore for the supply of MHP. The Rochester Hub project, which stalled more than a year ago due to funding difficulties, has an estimated capital investment requirement of $960 million, of which $487 million is needed to complete construction. With this loan, the project now has a chance to move forward.
The US Department of Energy’s loan is part of the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing program, which aims to reduce the US auto industry’s dependence on imported critical materials, mainly from China. With Donald Trump now in office, the US government is expected to intensify efforts to develop domestic lithium production and reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
Rio Tinto plans to start building a new solar power plant with a capacity of 25 megawatts in the US state of Utah. The new plant will serve the electricity needs of the Kennecott Utah Copper mining and smelting complex, which has an annual production capacity of up to 108,000 tonnes of copper. The plant will span 210 acres and feature over 71,000 solar panels, including tellurium, a rare element obtained during copper ore processing.
The site for the new power plant is near an existing 5-megawatt solar facility, built last year. Rio Tinto estimates that both plants together will reduce carbon emissions at Kennecott Utah Copper (Scope 2 emissions) by about 6%, equivalent to approximately 21,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually—the emissions produced by 5,000 passenger cars.
Utah has approximately 238 sunny days per year, making it an ideal location for solar power projects. Rio Tinto’s investment aims not only to cut emissions but also to provide cheaper electricity for its operations. Rio Tinto is one of several base metal producers turning to solar energy to power their operations. In March 2024, Scatec, Equinor, and Norsk Hydro commissioned the 531-megawatt Mendubim solar power plant to supply electricity to Hydro Alunorte’s alumina refinery in Brazil.
Similarly, in May, Germany’s Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper producer, began construction of a solar power plant to supply electricity to its Pirdop plant in Bulgaria, which, once commissioned, will meet 15% of the facility’s total energy consumption. In July, Spain’s Atlantic Copper, part of Freeport-McMoRan, signed an agreement with MET Group to receive electricity from the 25-megawatt Sant Jordi solar power plant. This move will help Atlantic Copper reduce costs in producing up to 285,000 tonnes of copper cathode per year.
Given the vast desert areas and high number of sunny days per year in many countries around the world, it is likely that solar power plant construction will experience a boom in the next 15-20 years across North and South America, Africa, Asia, and Australia. These solar power projects will be crucial for powering mining and processing operations, particularly for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminium.
Metals Market Update: November 4 – 8French metallurgical company Constellium has launched a project to produce aluminium semi-finished products using hydrogen as a fuel. The company’s research and development center has successfully cast its first aluminium plate using hydrogen. Given the odorless and highly flammable nature of hydrogen, the research center installed an additional safety system to monitor hydrogen concentrations in the air, ensuring a safer supply to the aluminium casting furnace and preventing potential emergencies.
The hydrogen project is part of Constellium’s broader strategy to reduce the carbon footprint of its products. Constellium is not the only major aluminium producer exploring hydrogen initiatives. In June, Norsk Hydro produced the world’s first commercial batch of aluminium using hydrogen, although it involved recycled aluminium, which was subsequently used to manufacture parts for cars and window frames. Around the same time, Novelis received a £4.6 million grant from the UK government to experiment with hydrogen in a furnace to remelt scrap aluminium at its Latchford plant, which produces up to 195,000 tonnes of rolled products for the automotive industry.
The US Department of Energy has finalized a nearly $2.3 billion loan agreement with Lithium Americas. The loan has a term of two years, with interest rates varying by tranche based on changes in the US Federal Reserve’s key rate. Lithium Americas plans to use the funds to develop the Thacker Pass project, which will involve constructing a facility in Nevada to extract lithium raw materials and produce 40,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually, with the potential to expand to 80,000 tonnes per year.
Earlier, automotive giant General Motors announced an agreement to invest $625 million in Thacker Pass, giving it access to 38% of the project’s output for 20 years once production begins. The support from the US Department of Energy aligns with President Joe Biden’s policy to reduce US industry dependence on critical materials from China, particularly lithium, by boosting domestic production capabilities.
Global mining and metals giant Glencore has reported its production results for the first nine months of this year, showing an overall decline. Copper output fell by 4% to 705,200 tonnes, primarily due to the sale of its Australian Cobar mine. Zinc production also dropped by 4% to 643,600 tonnes, mainly because of reduced utilization of the Antamina mine in Peru. Cobalt production decreased by 18% to 26,500 tonnes, following reduced output at the Mutanda mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Nickel production fell by 9% to 62,300 tonnes due to the shutdown of the Koniambo mine in New Caledonia.
In contrast, gold production remained stable at 543,000 troy ounces (16.9 tonnes) for January to September, while silver production fell by 4% to nearly 14 million ounces (434 tonnes). Notably, the drop in zinc production occurred despite the February 2024 restart of Glencore’s Nordenham zinc smelter in Germany, which had been shut down in November 2022 due to rising electricity tariffs. Nickel production fell despite the February 2024 launch of the Anuri mine in Canada.
Despite these declines, Glencore has kept its non-ferrous metals production forecast for 2024 unchanged, expecting copper output in the range of 0.95-1.1 million tonnes, zinc production between 900,000-950,000 tonnes, and nickel production between 80,000-90,000 tonnes.
China’s zinc smelter procurement group has set processing fees for the first quarter of 2025 in the range of $282 to $350 per tonne. In August, key Chinese zinc smelters discussed plans to overhaul facilities and postponed the commissioning of new capacity, while also considering a mechanism to set a minimum price for zinc concentrate processing services.
Meanwhile, zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have been rising, reflecting a tense market situation. In early August, zinc was priced at $2,527 per tonne, but it has since surpassed $3,000. This trend is driven by large consumers actively buying zinc out of concern about potential supply reductions, particularly due to shipment difficulties from mines such as the Australian Century mine, which remains closed until mid-November.
According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, zinc raw material production (in terms of pure metal) has dropped by 4.2% in the first eight months of this year, while refined zinc production has fallen by 1%. Under these circumstances, further declines in zinc output are likely until the end of 2024 and into early 2025, potentially pushing zinc prices on the LME above $3,100 per tonne.
By the end of 2024, the deficit of copper concentrates in the global market could reach 1.9 million tonnes, with further expansion expected over the next two years. At the same time, the global market is experiencing a surplus of blister copper smelting and copper cathode production capacity. These two opposing factors will continue to put pressure on rates for processing and refining copper concentrates, according to the Chilean state commission Cochilco, an important analytical body for the copper market.
The current situation in the global copper market suggests significant changes are on the horizon. China has seen the greatest growth in copper smelting capacity over the past decade, but new smelters are also being built in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Indonesia, and India, which will transform global supply and demand dynamics. In the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, copper production is expanding to address the challenges of transporting concentrates by road, as copper cathodes are easier to transport than concentrates. Meanwhile, Indonesian government policy aims to limit raw material exports and encourage processing into pure metal domestically, while India is experiencing growing demand for copper.
However, the shortage of concentrates could lead to lower pure copper output in several countries and delays in new smelter projects. Despite this, a surplus of copper cathode is expected to persist in the global market until the end of the year, largely due to weakening demand from China. The world’s largest copper consumer has reduced orders for copper products (such as cables and wires) from the construction sector. Recent measures by the Chinese government to improve the construction sector are unlikely to have a direct impact on the global copper market or significantly boost copper prices.
Platinum and palladiumPlatinum and palladium are platinum group metals (PGM), a classification which also includes iridium, osmium, rhodium and ruthenium. Both metals are highly valued for their rarity, durability and wide-ranging applications, which makes them particularly important in the automotive industry, jewellery making and clean energy. Today, the importance of these metals to global markets is growing, especially amidst the transition to a green economy. Despite belonging to the same group of metals, platinum and palladium differ markedly in their properties and applications.
Palladium is a silvery-white metal, known for its cubic crystal lattice structure. First discovered in 1802 by William Hyde Wollaston, today it is mined primarily in Russia (92 tonnes per year) and South Africa (71 tonnes per year) – the two undisputed leaders in palladium production. Palladium is one of the world’s rarest metals, and is approximately 15 to 30 times scarcer than gold, which accounts for its high price. Palladium is lightweight, durable and highly corrosion-resistant, making it suitable for use in harsh environments.
Platinum, discovered in the 18th century, is another platinum group metal and has some similarities to palladium. Platinum is heavier, denser and has a higher melting point, making it suitable for high-temperature applications. The main production centres for platinum are in South Africa and Russia. South Africa is the leading producer, holding about 95% of the world’s platinum reserves.
Though platinum and palladium may appear similar, there are some significant differences in their physical properties:
Both metals have experienced significant price volatility in recent years. Palladium prices rose sharply between 2020 and 2022, reaching $3,000 per troy ounce as a result of supply shortages driven by tightening environmental standards in the automotive industry. Despite a subsequent fall in prices (palladium is trading at $1,200 per troy ounce at the time of writing, while platinum is trading at $1,027), palladium remains more expensive than platinum due to its higher scarcity and the demand for catalytic converters.
Platinum, on the other hand, has had a more stable price trajectory, with moderate growth thanks to increasing demand for industrial applications and the development of the hydrogen economy. Analysts forecast a slow but steady increase in platinum prices, while palladium prices are likely to decline due to the growing popularity of electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters.
Russia and South Africa dominate production for both metals. South Africa holds about 95% of the world’s platinum reserves, while Russia leads palladium production, producing about 92 tonnes per year. This level of concentration poses a potential supply disruption risk.
Platinum and palladium are critical metals, each with unique properties that make them suitable for a wide variety of applications. Thanks to its weight, high melting point and strength, platinum is ideal for high-temperature industrial applications and jewellery. Palladium, which is light, resistant to corrosion and highly durable, is an essential metal for the automotive industry, hydrogen storage and advanced technologies in areas such as solar panels. Both metals continue to find new applications, notably in green energy.
Metals Market Update: October 28 – November 1In the first nine months of 2024, Russia increased alumina imports from China by 43% to 1.2 million tonnes, with imports expanding 1.6 times to 123,100 tonnes in September. In monetary terms, alumina imports from January to September grew 1.7 times to $582.6 million, doubling to nearly $70 million in September alone.
This sharp increase in Chinese alumina imports is attributed to purchases by Rusal, Russia’s only primary aluminium producer, which last October acquired a 30% stake in the Hebei Wenfeng New Materials alumina refinery. Rusal was forced to make this purchase due to challenges in securing raw materials from its assets outside Russia. Notably, it lost the Nikolaev alumina refinery in Ukraine, capable of producing 1.5-1.7 million tonnes of alumina per year, which was nationalized by the Ukrainian government in 2023. Additionally, in 2022, the Australian authorities imposed a ban on bauxite and alumina supplies to Russia, further impacting Rusal’s operations.
The situation has made Rusal increasingly dependent on Chinese alumina to keep its production stable, and this dependency is not without risks. The fluctuating alumina prices and China’s market dominance put pressure on Rusal’s operational costs and profitability. Rusal has attempted to mitigate these challenges through diversification, such as by investing in the construction of a new alumina refinery in northwestern Russia. The planned refinery, which will have an annual capacity of 4.8 million tonnes, represents an ambitious project that includes the construction of a deep-water port to facilitate transportation. The cost of this project is expected to exceed $4 billion.
However, this new project will not be realized quickly, and until it becomes operational, Rusal will continue to rely heavily on alumina imports from China, which will continue to weigh on its profitability. The rising global alumina prices, exacerbated by a reduction in exports from Australia and disruptions in supplies from Guinea, further complicate the situation for Rusal. This reliance underscores the challenges faced by Russian aluminium producers as they navigate international trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions.
The African Bravura Group plans to build a lithium hydroxide production plant in Germany, a key component for manufacturing batteries used in electric vehicles and electronic devices such as smartphones and laptops. The company is currently evaluating various potential locations for the facility and negotiating with automakers and component manufacturers. The final decision on the site is expected next year, after which construction will commence, with operations tentatively scheduled to begin in 2027.
Bravura Group plans to supply the plant with spodumene concentrate sourced from its deposits in Africa, transported by its own fleet of dry bulk carriers. By ensuring a stable supply chain, Bravura aims to maintain independence from intermediaries and traders, giving it a competitive advantage in the European market. If successful, Bravura will be the first to supply lithium hydroxide directly to German consumers without intermediaries, enhancing cost-efficiency and supply reliability.
The company’s approach differs from that of British Zinnwald Lithium, which plans to develop the Zinnwald deposit in Germany and produce 12,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide annually. Bravura’s move signals an increased focus on vertically integrated supply chains, which can provide a more streamlined production process and improve supply stability.
Judging by Bravura Group’s plans, we can expect that in the coming decade, companies from various regions will undertake similar projects to establish lithium production facilities within the European Union. This trend aligns with the EU’s policy to ensure at least 40% of the lithium consumed within its borders is produced locally by 2030. Such developments are also a response to the increasing demand for lithium-ion batteries, driven by the rapid expansion of electric vehicle production and the growing focus on renewable energy storage solutions.
The EU’s focus on boosting local lithium production is not just about meeting growing demand but also about reducing dependence on imported materials, particularly from politically sensitive regions. By fostering domestic lithium production capabilities, the EU aims to bolster its supply chain security, enhance resilience against potential trade disruptions, and create new economic opportunities within the bloc.
According to William Oplinger, CEO of U.S.-based Alcoa Corporation, the global shift towards renewable energy is driving an increase in copper consumption. He predicts that as copper demand outpaces supply, aluminium will gradually replace copper in some industries. Overall, current global market trends support an increase in aluminium orders by 3-5% annually.
While there may indeed be a long-term copper shortage due to the rise of electric vehicles, solar and wind power plants, and grid infrastructure, as well as limited capacity to increase copper supply, aluminium may not be a feasible alternative for all applications. Copper has superior physical properties, including higher ductility and electrical conductivity, making it the preferred choice in many uses. For instance, using aluminium windings in electric car motors significantly increases their size compared to copper windings. Additionally, aluminium is less resistant to moisture and more challenging to weld than copper.
In addition to these limitations, aluminium substitution could also have implications for the efficiency and performance of key applications. In power transmission, for example, copper’s superior electrical conductivity means less energy loss compared to aluminium, making it the material of choice for most electrical wiring. Despite aluminium being cheaper and lighter, its physical limitations may prevent widespread replacement in critical components.
Thus, aluminium is unlikely to replace copper in electric motors and other high-performance applications on a large scale. Instead, its use will likely be limited to manufacturing electric car wheels, body parts, and less critical components where cost and weight are prioritized over performance. However, as the renewable energy sector continues to grow, the demand for both metals is expected to remain robust, driven by their roles in supporting green technologies.
Shareholders of the American corporation AngloGold Ashanti and British Centamin have approved their merger, which is expected to be completed by the end of November 2024. The merger will be executed through a share exchange, resulting in AngloGold Ashanti shareholders owning 83.6% of the combined company and Centamin shareholders owning 16.4%.
AngloGold Ashanti, formed in 1998 after the spin-off of gold mining assets from Anglo American and its subsequent merger with Ashanti Goldfields in 2004, operates mines and exploration projects in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the U.S., Australia, and other countries. In 2023, the company produced over 2.5 million troy ounces of gold, primarily from the Geita, Kibali, Tropicana, Iduapriem, AngloGold Ashanti Mineração, and Sunrise Dam mines. In March 2024, AngloGold Ashanti also discovered a new gold deposit in Nevada, U.S., with an inferred resource of 9.1 million troy ounces.
The merger is expected to bring significant synergies, including operational cost savings and increased production efficiency. By combining their resources and expertise, AngloGold Ashanti and Centamin aim to enhance their global competitiveness and secure a stronger foothold in key mining regions. If the merger with Centamin proceeds smoothly, AngloGold Ashanti could become the world’s fourth-largest gold producer, behind Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, and Agnico Eagle.
In addition to the production synergies, the combined entity will benefit from a more diversified portfolio of mining assets, which will reduce risks associated with individual projects or regional instability. The discovery of the new deposit in Nevada is also expected to play a key role in the growth strategy of the combined company, further bolstering its production capabilities and strengthening its market position.
In Q3 2024, South Africa’s Impala Platinum reduced its production of platinum and platinum group metals by 5.5% year-on-year to 947,000 troy ounces. Production from its wholly owned operations decreased by 6% to 751,000 troy ounces, while output from joint ventures increased by 3% to 145,000 troy ounces. Sales of platinum and related metals, however, declined by 4% to 792,000 troy ounces.
Factors affecting Impala Platinum’s production and sales included the launch of a new furnace at Zimplats, the company’s Zimbabwean asset, and changes in capacity utilization at specific operations. Notably, operations at Impala Rustenburg in South Africa improved significantly, despite disruptions caused by a forced shutdown in November 2023 following a fatal incident involving two miners.
Conversely, there was a decline in ore processing volumes, and the amount of platinum and related metals in concentrate dropped by 22% to 58,000 troy ounces. This decrease was primarily due to operational challenges, including lower ore grades and maintenance activities that temporarily reduced processing capacity.
Nevertheless, Impala Platinum may be able to increase metal output by the end of the year, supported by ongoing demand from the automotive, electronics, and jewelry industries, as well as the recent recovery in platinum and palladium prices since September. The automotive sector, in particular, continues to drive demand for platinum group metals due to their use in catalytic converters, which help reduce vehicle emissions.
In addition, Impala Platinum is exploring opportunities to optimize production at its existing facilities and invest in new technologies to improve operational efficiency. These efforts are part of the company’s broader strategy to enhance profitability and maintain its position as a leading producer of platinum group metals in the global market.
Palladium: A unique metal with wide-ranging applicationsPalladium is one of the rarest and most valuable metals on the planet – it’s 30 times more scarce than gold. The history of this metal begins in 1802, when English chemist William Hyde Wollaston discovered a new substance while dissolving platinum in a mixture of nitric and hydrochloric acids. Initially, Wollaston was reluctant to announce his discovery to the public, preferring to sell the metal to private buyers as ‘new silver’. It was only after other scientists began to claim that palladium was simply an alloy of existing metals that Wollaston was forced to present his findings to the Royal Society of London.
The metal was named after the asteroid Pallas, which was discovered around the same time. Initially, palladium was used to treat tuberculosis, but this practice had to be abandoned because of side effects. Palladium began to be used in jewellery in 1939, most often as a component of white gold. Thanks to its anticorrosive properties and attractive silvery-white colour, it quickly gained popularity among high-end jewellers.
It wasn’t until the late 1980s, however, that the application of palladium was widely adopted. This was the result of the tightening of environmental standards in the automobile industry, when the introduction of new emissions standards in the US, Europe and Japan required the mass rollout of catalytic converters. Here, palladium proved to be a vital component.
Palladium has a unique set of properties that make it indispensable in numerous modern technologies. It is a ductile, silvery-white metal that is 12.6% harder than platinum, ensuring high wear resistance. Palladium is also ductile enough that it can be produced in sheets measuring 4 microns thick, which makes it suitable for use in hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen purification and other high-tech applications.
One of palladium’s most remarkable properties is its ability to absorb as much as 900 times its own volume in hydrogen. This makes it vital in hydrogen purification processes and hydrogen energy. Additionally, palladium has high resistance to chemical corrosion and excellent electrical conductivity.
Automotive industry
Historically, the automotive industry has been the largest consumer of palladium. Catalytic converters, which convert toxic exhaust gases into less harmful substances, use 2–7 grams of the metal. It is worth noting, however, that the development of electric vehicles could ultimately change palladium’s role in the automotive industry significantly. Since electric vehicles do not need catalytic converters, demand for palladium from automakers may decrease in the long term. This creates certain challenges for palladium producers, while incentivising the search for new applications for the metal.
Water purification and wastewater treatment
Palladium opens the door to more efficient and environmentally friendly water purification technologies. Unlike the traditional method of disinfecting water with chlorine, which requires the storage of large volumes of hazardous chemicals, palladium-based technologies allow disinfectants to be produced directly at the point of use.
The process is based on the electrolysis of common table salt, with a palladium catalyst ensuring high reaction efficiency. The catalytic system requires just 0.6 milligrams of palladium per unit, which makes the technology economically viable even taking into account the high cost of the metal. These units are not only safer to operate, but also allow for higher levels of water purification with lower cost inputs.
Hydrogen energy
Against the backdrop of the global transition to clean energy, palladium is playing a key role in the development of hydrogen energy. It is deployed across the entire cycle of hydrogen production and use, from water electrolysis to the purification of the resulting gas and its storage.
Palladium is used as an electrode component and a catalyst for the hydrogen evolution reaction in the production of ‘green’ hydrogen. Palladium membranes play a special role, possessing a unique ability to let only hydrogen molecules pass through them, thus ensuring a very high level of purification. These membranes are capable of operating at high temperatures and pressures, maintaining stability and efficiency for long periods.
Palladium membranes are already being implemented in a number of large-scale projects. For example, the British company Johnson Matthey has developed and implemented a technology for catalytic membranes that are used to produce clean hydrogen through water electrolysis. These catalyst-coated membranes are used in electrolysers and are key components in the production of ‘green’ hydrogen that avoids harmful emissions. This technology can contribute to the decarbonisation of various industries, including transport and heavy industry.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is dedicating significant resources to the development of hydrogen energy technologies, including solid-state electrolysis cells and anode exchange membranes, which are used to generate hydrogen for fuel cells. These technologies allow for the efficient production of hydrogen, which can be used as a clean energy source. Russia’s Nornickel, meanwhile, is investing heavily in the development of palladium membranes, with a focus on increasing their service life and efficiency.
Solar power
The latest research has been positive when it comes to potential applications for palladium in solar power. A newly synthesised compound of palladium and selenium has demonstrated unique photoelectric properties. The compound has a higher efficiency when converting light energy into electrical energy compared with traditional materials used in solar panels such as copper, indium and selenium.
Although this technology is still in its fundamental research stage, scientists are already studying a number of its aspects, including the chemical stability of the new synthesised compound and how its properties change depending on particle size and layer thickness. It is expected that a prototype of a new active element for solar panels using palladium will be developed in the near future.
Chemical industry
Palladium has proven itself as an effective catalyst in the chemical industry, and is used in many processes. It plays a particularly important role in the production of glycolic acid, a substance widely used in the pharmaceutical, cosmetic and textile industries. The traditional method of producing glycolic acid through the oxidation of formaldehyde with nitric acid is environmentally harmful. With palladium catalysts, the more environmentally friendly process of liquid-phase oxidation of ethylene glycol can be used.
Current research is focused on creating new catalytic systems based on palladium and gold nanoparticles on a carbon carrier. Laboratory tests show that these catalysts outperform existing commercial solutions in terms of both activity and selectivity, providing higher yields of the target product.
Global palladium production is concentrated in a handful of countries. Russia leads the way, producing about 92 tonnes of the metal per year, while South Africa is ranked second with 71 tonnes. Canada (16 tonnes), Zimbabwe (15 tonnes) and the United States (9 tonnes) also make significant contributions to global production.
Palladium prices have historically been highly volatile. The metal fluctuated in the $100–150 per ounce range between 1986 and 1996, and the first significant price jump occurred in 2001. In subsequent years, the price showed significant fluctuations and, as of 2016, it has begun to grow steadily, exceeding $1,500 per ounce in February 2019. In February 2022, the price reached an all-time high of around $3,000 per ounce.
Despite the potential reduction in demand from the automotive industry resulting from the development of electric transport, prospects for applications of palladium remain very optimistic. Research is actively underway to create new materials and technologies using palladium in a number of fields:
In hydrogen energy, scientists are working to improve palladium membranes by increasing their service life and efficiency. Particular attention is being paid to the development of new alloys of palladium with other platinum group metals (PGMs) to achieve a synergistic effect from their catalytic properties.
In water purification, research is aimed at optimising the composition of catalytic coatings to increase activity and reduce the amount of palladium required. New methods for applying palladium to electrodes are being developed to ensure better adhesion and a longer service life for the coatings.
In solar energy, new palladium compounds that can convert light energy into electrical energy more efficiently are being studied. Researchers are working to optimise the structure and composition of these compounds in order to achieve the maximum possible energy conversion efficiency.
Despite its high cost, palladium remains one of the most important metals for the development of new technologies. Its unique properties make it indispensable in a number of critical applications, from water purification to clean energy generation. Although the advent of EVs may lead to a decrease in demand from the automotive industry, the emergence of new applications and improvements in existing technologies are creating a sustainable future for this rare metal.
Current research and development efforts are aimed at optimising the use of palladium, which will help to reduce the amounts of the metal required in various applications while maintaining or even improving efficiency. This makes palladium-based technologies more accessible and suitable for widespread implementation, which is of vital importance in the context of the global transition to cleaner and more sustainable technologies.
Events, Trends and Forecasts: 21 – 25 OctoberIndonesian state-owned corporation Indonesia Battery has formed a joint venture with China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) to establish a lithium-ion battery production facility for electric vehicles. Capital investment in the project is expected to be at least $1.2 billion, with a production capacity of up to 15 gigawatt-hours per year.
This project is a significant step towards realizing the Indonesian government’s strategy to create a full electric vehicle production chain, from mining and processing nickel to manufacturing finished vehicles. Earlier this year, South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution commissioned Indonesia’s first battery cell manufacturing plant, while China’s BTR New Material Group launched an anode material production facility.
By leveraging the strong nickel industry that Indonesia has developed in recent years, authorities are seeking to attract foreign investment to establish their own electric vehicle industry. This strategy not only supports employment growth but also increases domestic nickel usage, reducing reliance on exports that have driven down global prices for the metal, thereby affecting Indonesia’s foreign exchange earnings.
The development of lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles could position Indonesia as a major production hub, while also positively influencing lithium prices, which—like nickel—are currently at low levels.
French cable and wire manufacturer Nexans plans to build a copper scrap processing plant adjacent to its existing facility in Lens, increasing the total smelting capacity for copper scrap to 80,000 tons per year. The equipment will be designed, manufactured, installed, and commissioned by Continuus Properzi, an Italian company specializing in non-ferrous metal melting and continuous casting technologies.
Nexans’ capital investment in the new plant will amount to $95 million, and it will produce copper wire rod, which serves as a billet for manufacturing cables and wires used across various energy sectors. The project is expected to be completed by 2026.
In parallel, Nexans will expand copper scrap collection across France to ensure the new plant is fully supplied with raw materials when it begins operations. This initiative will help Nexans increase the share of recycled copper in its products to 30% by 2030, aligning with a broader trend in the European non-ferrous metals industry to reduce carbon footprints and dependence on concentrate supplies.
Nickel prices in the global market are expected to remain under pressure from an ongoing surplus until the end of this year, according to BMI forecasts. The average nickel price for 2024 has been revised down from $18,000 to $17,300 per ton.
Global market conditions have become more complicated following the discovery of the Wedei deposit in Papua New Guinea, which could make the country a key supplier of nickel raw materials or pure metal. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2024 experienced strong volatility, reaching a low of $15,305 per ton in July after a May high of $21,615 per ton. In September, prices rebounded to $16,996 per ton, but they have since started falling again, currently standing at $16,255 per ton.
However, prices may find some support from the Indonesian government’s decision to reduce quotas for nickel raw material exports and a decreased production forecast at the Weda Bay mine. Meanwhile, nickel production is expected to continue growing in Indonesia and China, contributing to the global surplus. At the same time, reduced output in Western countries may provide some price stability, potentially preventing prices from falling below $15,000 per ton.
Wieland Group, Germany’s largest producer of copper semi-finished products, has launched a solar power plant capable of generating 29 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually. Wieland’s capital investment in the solar power project amounted to nearly $22 million, covering the purchase, installation, and commissioning of 48,000 solar modules, 14 transformers, a substation, and other facilities. The solar plant is located five kilometers from Wieland Group’s main office.
According to Wieland’s forecasts, the power plant will meet 8% of the electricity needs for all its metallurgical plants in Germany. Additionally, Wieland will receive electricity from another solar plant currently under construction by Vattenfall, with an annual capacity of approximately 46 gigawatt-hours. Once operational, this facility is expected to supply 13% of Wieland’s electricity requirements.
The use of solar energy is part of Wieland Group’s broader plan to increase the share of renewable energy in its energy mix. The company is also exploring opportunities for wind farm projects within both the European Union and the United States, where it operates. Wieland is not alone in this trend—other non-ferrous metals producers, including Alcoa and Norsk Hydro, are also investing in renewable energy projects.
The U.S. government has proposed that its G7 partners consider imposing sanctions on titanium and palladium exports from Russia. This suggestion has led to discussions regarding the feasibility and potential impact of such measures on Russia’s revenues.
The issue is complex; Russia produced 92 tons of palladium last year, compared to 16 tons from Canada and 9.8 tons from the U.S., according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Global palladium output was 210 tons, with Russia accounting for nearly 45% of the supply. The proposal would aim to eliminate a key supplier from the global market, which may be challenging given that most G7 countries do not produce palladium, and other producers—such as the U.S., Canada, South Africa, and Zimbabwe—have limited capacity for increased output.
If sanctions are imposed, palladium prices are likely to rise by at least 50% (they have already increased by 10% on the news of potential sanctions). This increase could significantly affect the cost of catalysts for cars, oil refining, electronic parts, medical instruments, pacemaker components, anti-tumor drugs, and other critical products.
Higher palladium prices would lead to increased costs for automobiles, gasoline, consumer electronics, and more. Manufacturers might also face difficulties in finding alternative palladium suppliers quickly, potentially resulting in reduced output.
Events, Trends, and Forecasts: October 14 – 18When discussing the aluminium market, China is always the focal point as both the largest producer and consumer of aluminium globally. Prices for the metal are closely tied to developments there, and currently, there are signs of a slowdown in aluminium demand in China, which is poised to impact the global market.
Meanwhile, transformation processes are underway in the markets of other non-ferrous metals. For instance, Posco Future M is advancing the production of cathode materials with high nickel content for electric vehicle batteries, which is expected to boost nickel demand in the long term.
By the end of this year, the growth rate of aluminium consumption in China is expected to fall below 5%, compared to 6% in 2023. The domestic market presents a mixed picture: on one hand, the increased pace of power generation facility construction, infrastructure projects, and transport development is expected to sustain aluminium demand at approximately 43 million tonnes in 2024. In August, the share of aluminium consumption by the transport sector reached 20.1%, overtaking housing construction at 18.4%. The shares of the electric power and packaging sectors stood at 18.8% and 7.7%, respectively.
However, China faces significant economic challenges, notably a stagnant real estate market, which directly affects aluminium product orders and downstream production.
Overall, primary aluminium output in China is forecasted to reach 42.8 million tonnes in 2024, up from 41.6 million tonnes in 2023. Aluminium imports are expected to total 3 million tonnes, partly due to increased supplies from Russia. Imports from Russia could further expand if the US and EU authorities impose new sanctions on Russia, though discussions about banning Russian aluminium imports in the EU have not yet led to concrete actions.
South Korean company Posco Future M has begun early production of monocrystalline cathode materials based on nickel, cobalt, and aluminium for lithium-ion batteries, expanding its product line that includes nickel, cobalt, and manganese cathodes. The new materials, with a nickel content of 88%, offer high energy density and power output, which are crucial for electric vehicle batteries. Initially planned for launch in three months, production has commenced ahead of schedule.
This product launch aligns with Posco Future M’s strategy to expand its cathode production capacity to 82,500 tonnes by 2025 and 248,500 tonnes by 2026. Posco Future M, a subsidiary of Posco Corporation, South Korea’s leading steelmaker, produced 36 million tonnes of steel in 2023 and aims to increase production to 52 million tonnes by 2030.
Posco is also diversifying into lithium mining and processing, acquiring the Salar del Hombre Muerto lithium deposit in Argentina in 2018 for $280 million from Australia’s Galaxy Resources. Posco aims to create a complete lithium production cycle, from mining to battery manufacturing, advancing each stage of the process chain.
The introduction of a cross-border carbon tax in the European Union in two years is expected to create serious challenges for the European aluminium industry, according to Paul Voss, CEO of the European Aluminium Association. The carbon tax will increase the cost of aluminium imports into the EU, raising costs for refiners and making European aluminium producers less competitive globally.
Additionally, the EU aluminium industry requires state support to manage high raw material and energy costs. Rising electricity tariffs, partly due to the shift from Russian pipeline gas to more expensive liquefied natural gas, have further compounded the situation. Last month, natural gas costs at the Dutch TTF hub were three times higher than in September 2019.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production in Central and Western Europe fell by 28.6% to 2.71 million tonnes between 2010 and 2023, while production in Eastern Europe and Russia declined by just 5.6% to 4.02 million tonnes. A potential solution to this problem is state subsidies for aluminium smelters’ electricity costs, which would help maintain profitability and competitiveness, countering Chinese and Middle Eastern producers’ growing market share.
US car manufacturer General Motors plans to invest $625 million in the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, in collaboration with Canadian company Lithium Americas. Under the agreement, Lithium Americas will acquire a 38% stake in the project, while maintaining operational control of the remaining 62%.
General Motors’ decision follows a revision of its electric vehicle production plans, similar to a move made by competitor Ford. Despite changes in timing, GM remains committed to an electric future, as reiterated by CEO Mary Barra.
Participation in the Thacker Pass project is crucial for GM to secure lithium supplies. The agreement allows GM to purchase 100% of the lithium produced during the first phase of Thacker Pass for 20 years and 38% during the second phase, also for 20 years.
GM is not the only US carmaker investing in lithium mining; Ford and Tesla are also pursuing similar strategies. Ford, for instance, signed long-term supply agreements with Albemarle, SQM, and Nemaska Lithium in May 2023.
The Philippines’ Global Ferronickel Holdings is in talks with two companies to build a nickel smelter, though their identities remain undisclosed—one reportedly from Asia and the other from Europe. Currently, Global Ferronickel Holdings focuses on developing laterite deposits in the Philippines and exports the mined nickel ores to countries such as China. Its nickel ore production could reach 6.5 million tonnes per year.
The Philippines already hosts two nickel smelting plants owned by Nickel Asia Corporation. Global Ferronickel Holdings also holds a 20% stake in Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Industry, one of China’s largest ferronickel producers.
Global Ferronickel Holdings’ plans reflect current market dynamics, with slowed nickel shipments from Indonesia leading to price changes. The Philippine government aims to attract foreign investors for nickel plant construction, similar to Indonesia’s strategy, potentially leading to a boom in nickel smelting plants.
In the long term, increased competition between Indonesian and Philippine nickel suppliers is expected, which could exert downward pressure on nickel prices.
Events, Trends, and Forecasts: October 7 – 11The global lithium market is abuzz with Rio Tinto’s acquisition of Arcadium Lithium for a record amount, a move that could reshape the landscape for lithium producers. Additionally, a new player may enter the copper market, while significant changes loom for the aluminium and zinc sectors.
French oil and gas giant TotalEnergies is considering expanding into copper trading, according to Rahim Azouni, senior vice president of TotalEnergies, who addressed employees at a closed conference. The interest in copper comes amid forecasts of a potential long-term shortage, driven by declining deposits and limited new sites, alongside increasing demand for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI development.
It remains unclear whether TotalEnergies will focus solely on trading or also engage in mining and processing. If the current trajectory continues, the company may start with trading and later expand into mining, similar to the strategy of other oil giants exploring lithium opportunities.
Rio Tinto has agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 billion, significantly boosting its presence in the lithium market. Rio Tinto currently has lithium projects in Argentina (Rincon) and Serbia (Jadar). The addition of Arcadium Lithium’s operations across Australia, Canada, the US, and Argentina is expected to propel Rio Tinto to a leading position, accounting for about 10% of global lithium supply by 2030. This would place Rio Tinto among the top players, alongside Albemarle and SQM.
The long-term outlook for lithium remains optimistic, with rising demand driven by the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage solutions. Analysts predict that production from Arcadium Lithium’s assets could increase by 78% over the next three years. If the acquisition is finalized, Rio Tinto may decide to suspend the controversial Jadar project in Serbia, which has faced significant environmental protests.
Rusal plans to begin construction of the second phase of the Boguchansk aluminium smelter (BoAZ) next year, aiming to double its capacity to 600,000 tonnes by 2030. The estimated investment requirements will be determined by the end of 2024.
The first phase of BoAZ, with a capacity of 298,000 tonnes per year, was commissioned in 2019 with investments totaling $1.7 billion. It was financed jointly by Rusal and RusHydro, partners in the Boguchansk Energy and Metallurgical Association, which includes BoAZ and the Boguchansk Hydroelectric Power Plant.
Rusal also financed the first phase of the Taishet aluminium smelter (TAZ), with a capacity of 428,500 tonnes per year, commissioned in late 2021. Plans to expand TAZ to 540,000 tonnes have been put on hold, contingent on the progress of BoAZ’s capacity expansion.
In 2023, Rusal produced approximately 3.9 million tonnes of aluminium, with sales totaling 4.153 million tonnes, aided by the sale of excess inventory from 2022.
Japanese buyers have agreed to a premium of $175 per tonne for primary aluminium shipments from key producers in the final quarter of 2024, a 1.7% increase over the previous quarter but slightly below the range of $180-185 per tonne previously offered by Western suppliers.
Japan, a major importer of primary aluminium, determines its quarterly premiums based on London Metal Exchange quotations. In 2023, Japan’s aluminium imports fell by 26% to 1.03 million tonnes, their lowest level since 1986, due to declining demand from the construction and automotive sectors.
Japan remains a leading producer of secondary aluminium, with annual output exceeding 1 million tonnes, and also exports significant volumes of aluminium semi-finished products globally, including to China.
Korea Zinc, a leading global zinc producer, is embroiled in a corporate conflict involving major shareholders and top management. MBK Partners, a private equity firm allied with members of the Chang family (who also control competitor Young Poong), is attempting a takeover of Korea Zinc, which has been managed by the Choi family since its founding in 1974. The Choi family is backed by Bain Capital, co-owner of Burger King.
MBK Partners seeks to become the main shareholder of Korea Zinc by acquiring shares held by Young Poong. However, this is strongly opposed by the Choi family. Korea Zinc has consistently performed well financially, while Young Poong has faced significant issues, including allegations of employee safety violations and potential environmental sanctions that could shut down operations at the Seokpo smelter.
Tensions have escalated over Korea Zinc’s refusal to process sulphuric acid generated at Seokpo, arguing it should be handled by Young Poong directly due to high storage and transportation costs. Young Poong claims this violates a long-standing agreement, jeopardizing Seokpo’s viability.
The outcome of this conflict remains uncertain, casting doubt on Korea Zinc’s future. Plans to diversify into nickel production—from 22,000 tonnes to 65,000 tonnes annually—could also be jeopardized. As part of its strategy, Korea Zinc recently acquired US-based Kataman Metals for $55 million, specializing in non-ferrous metal scrap processing. Kataman Metals trades approximately 300,000 tonnes of scrap annually, focusing on aluminium and copper, with revenues of around $1.5 billion.
The acquisition is strategically important as Korea Zinc looks to expand its copper operations at Onsan, which will require up to 130,000 tonnes of scrap copper annually once the expansion is completed in the first half of 2025.
Palladium Membranes for Pure Hydrogen Production
Palladium membranes have shown great potential for the purification of hydrogen gas. As the demand for pure hydrogen continues to grow in various industries, the need for efficient and cost-effective purification methods becomes increasingly important. Palladium membranes offer a promising green solution due to their high selectivity and permeability for hydrogen gas.
“Production of hydrogen from hydrocarbons remains the main hydrogen source. Before its use in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, hydrogen must be separated from gas mixtures and purified,” said Sergey Saltykov, Nornickel’s Head of R&D. He added that membrane purification stands out as a promising method for this stage.
The goal is to use a membrane that allows hydrogen to pass through but blocks other gas mixture components. “Palladium is uniquely ‘transparent’ to hydrogen, enabling it to exclusively pass hydrogen, a property that sets palladium apart from other platinum group metals,” Saltykov explained.
Commercially, these membranes are often a thin palladium layer on a substrate of various types. A significant technological challenge is ensuring strong adhesion between the film and the substrate.
“In our products, we plan to integrate multiple physical and electrochemical methods to prepare membranes with enhanced adhesion, thereby prolonging service life and optimizing the hydrogen permeance/selectivity ratio. Consequently, we introduce new palladium membranes that exhibit superior hydrogen performance and extended service life compared to existing commercial counterparts,” Saltykov elaborated.
The primary advantage of palladium membranes in hydrogen purification is their selectivity, allowing only hydrogen to pass while blocking other gases. This capability stems from palladium’s unique properties, enabling hydrogen to dissolve into its metal lattice and diffuse through, while blocking other gases.
With their improved adhesion, these membranes are highly effective in separating hydrogen from gas mixtures, ideal for hydrogen production, fuel cells, and various industrial processes. Their excellent hydrogen permeability ensures efficient transport across the membrane at high rates, suitable for large-scale purification processes. They offer a sustainable and cost-effective alternative to traditional methods like pressure swing adsorption or cryogenic distillation, due to their lower energy requirements and smaller operational footprint.
Moreover, these membranes can function at high temperatures, enhancing their performance and making them suitable for industrial applications. Operating at elevated temperatures increases hydrogen flux and aids in removing impurities like carbon monoxide and sulfur compounds, often found in hydrogen sources.
Despite the advantages, palladium membranes face challenges, particularly their vulnerability to poisoning by impurities such as sulfur and carbon monoxide. Ongoing research is directed towards developing palladium-based alloys and composite membranes with enhanced resistance to these impurities, alongside improved mechanical and thermal stability.
Palladium membranes hold significant promise for hydrogen gas purification, characterized by high selectivity, permeability, and operational capability at high temperatures. As the demand for pure hydrogen escalates, advancing palladium membrane technology will be pivotal for various industries, including fuel cells, ammonia production, and petrochemicals. Continued research and development could position palladium membranes as a central technology for adopting clean hydrogen as a sustainable energy carrier.
Events, Trends and Forecasts: September 30 – October 4The first week of October 2024 has concluded, bringing significant updates that shape the current state and outlook of the global non-ferrous metals market. Below are some of the key highlights.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) is considering several locations near Hong Kong to establish non-ferrous metal warehouses. This decision is driven by regional traders’ interest in Hong Kong as a financial and trading hub in Southeast Asia, and LME’s intention to boost trading activity and stay competitive in the non-ferrous metals sector.
Despite its dominant position in aluminium and copper markets, the LME has been losing ground in the lithium and cobalt markets, crucial for battery production in electric vehicles and electronics. It has been overtaken by the US CME Group in trading volumes and faces growing competition from China’s Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which is expanding its lithium carbonate futures.
Since being acquired by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing in 2012, the LME has expanded its warehouse network across the US, Europe, and Asia, currently with 465 facilities. Establishing a warehouse in Hong Kong will depend heavily on approval from the Chinese government and cooperation with Chinese traders, who prefer to expand their networks in the EU and North America or develop relationships with local industries.
The outlook for opening a warehouse in Hong Kong remains uncertain, as international players are more inclined to hedge price risks across multiple exchanges rather than committing to a single one.
French startup Botanickel is conducting research in the Balkans to grow Alyssum murale, a plant known for accumulating non-ferrous metals like cobalt, zinc, and nickel. Alyssum murale extracts metals from the soil and accumulates them in its above-ground parts. After harvesting, the plants are dried and turned into biomass pellets, which are processed in an experimental autoclave to produce pure metals, mainly nickel. The plant can accumulate up to 30,000 micrograms of nickel per gram of dry mass.
Botanickel was established in February 2024 by the EU’s largest stainless steel producer, Aperam, along with biotechnology company Econick, a spinoff of the University of Lorraine. Although the ability of certain plants to accumulate nickel has been known for some time, this marks the first attempt to use such plants for industrial-scale nickel production.
If Botanickel’s technology proves viable, it could significantly boost nickel production in the EU and reduce dependence on imports from New Caledonia, China, and Indonesia.
Global copper consumption increased by 2.9% to nearly 15.6 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2024, while production grew by 5.9% to 16.1 million tonnes, resulting in a surplus of 528,000 tonnes compared to 79,000 tonnes during the same period last year.
The International Copper Study Group attributes this growth primarily to Japan, China, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper production rose by 3.6% in Japan, 7% in China, and 18% in Congo, driven by increased utilization of existing smelters and the commissioning of new ones.
Meanwhile, Chile’s copper output declined by 6.6%, but this did not offset the surplus, as China and Congo account for more than half of the world’s copper production. While demand was weak in the US, EU, and Japan, other parts of Asia saw strengthened demand, especially in China, which remains the world’s largest copper consumer.
Rusal forecasts that the global aluminium surplus may shrink to 200-300 thousand tonnes in 2025, down from 500 thousand tonnes at the end of 2024. This outlook is linked to economic stimulus measures by the Chinese government, the largest aluminium consumer globally. Rusal also predicts a slower growth rate for aluminium consumption in China in 2025, with domestic supply lagging behind demand, while outside China, a surplus may continue, partly due to weakening demand in North America and the EU.
The International Aluminium Institute reported that primary aluminium production rose by 3.2% to 48.2 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2024. Rusal expects global aluminium consumption to grow by 2.5-2.7% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025.
Nickel production in Indonesia is expected to reach 2.2 million tonnes by the end of 2024, slightly below the earlier forecast of 2.25 million tonnes, according to Macquarie Group. The decline is attributed to reduced production of laterite ore, which has caused shortages at Indonesian smelters, particularly affecting nickel pig iron output, which fell by 12.1% in July and 5.9% in August compared to the previous year.
Despite this, the International Nickel Study Group expects global nickel production to grow by 4.9% to 3.52 million tonnes in 2024 and by 3.7% to 3.65 million tonnes in 2025.
The increase in Indonesian nickel production and exports has driven a significant drop in global prices, reaching a range of $17,900-$18,000 per tonne after hitting a low of $16,190 per tonne in August. Prices may drop again if Indonesian nickel exports resume growth.
Palladium’s use in electrochemical water disinfection devices
· Palladium can be a better catalyst for water disinfection than other metals
· Trials of new compounds with palladium for water purification are currently underway
Clean water is the foundation of human health and the health of the planet. It is a limited resource globally, and new water treatment technologies are needed to address this pressing problem.
One of the main methods of water disinfection — mainly seen in industry and in swimming pools — is the use of a powerful chemical agent, sodium hypochlorite (chlorine).
However, there are drawbacks to this method when used in industrial settings, including the need to store large quantities of hypochlorite, the necessity to dispose of unused reagent after its expiration date, and the requirement for additional personnel to operate the system.
A promising alternative method for water disinfection is the electrolysis of a solution of common table salt to produce hypochlorite on-site. It is one of the most promising techniques for water disinfection.
Special catalysts based on iridium and ruthenium are required to produce hypochlorite from table salt. These catalysts are used in commercial water disinfection devices and serve as commercial analogs for new prototypes.
However, a viable alternative exists. Chemist Dmitry Korolev said, “Palladium has shown promising results replacing iridium and ruthenium in the catalyst composition, with tests showing enhanced catalytic activity.”
“In the very near future, we will present a new technology, an electrode with palladium for electrochemical disinfection of water. Now we are at the stage of synthesis of experimental samples for research in laboratory conditions and determination of the optimal chemical composition,” Korolev added.
“That technology allows to increase the activity of the catalyst and the chlorine output by current, and makes the process more economical and affordable,” he further mentioned.
In July last year, Russian miner Nornickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, said it was actively developing a new composition of a palladium-based catalytic layer for application to electrodes. Researchers saw a possibility of synergistic effect of catalytic properties with other platinum group metals and increasing the service life of palladium-based catalytic coating.
“Electrolysis technology for water disinfection is just gaining momentum, but in the future, it may become a basic technology, and may also be used to treat drinking water,” Vitaly Busko, Nornickel’s vice president for innovation, said.
According to preliminary estimates, the use of palladium for electrochemical disinfection of water will require a relatively small amount of metal, or 0.6 milligrams per one catalyst unit. However, despite the high cost of palladium compared to other catalytic materials, the process will ultimately prove to be more cost-effective due to higher water treatment rates and, in the long term, the possibility of deeper treatment. Moreover, the use of palladium catalysts is a more environmentally friendly solution.
Currently, experimental prototypes of palladium-based compounds are being synthesized for laboratory testing to determine the optimal chemical composition. Once the trials are finished, a new electrode with palladium for electrochemical water disinfection will be introduced for commercial use.
The proposed technology allows for increased catalyst activity and chlorine production per unit of electricity, making the process more efficient and accessible. By utilizing palladium as a catalyst in electrochemical water disinfection devices, the new technology has the potential to revolutionize the water treatment industry.
This development has the potential to provide a more efficient and sustainable palladium-based solution for crystal clear and bacteria-free water on a global scale. As efforts continue to enhance the efficiency of water disinfection methods, the use of palladium in electrochemical devices will play a significant role in addressing the global challenge of clean water access.
