Metals Market Update: November 18 – 22

November 25, 2024
BY Lara Browne

Boliden Looks to Acquire Two Zinc Mines

Swedish metallurgical company Boliden is in negotiations with Lundin Mining to acquire two zinc mines: Zinkgruvan in Sweden and Neves-Corvo in Portugal. Last year, Zinkgruvan produced 76,349 tonnes of ore (in terms of pure zinc), while Neves-Corvo produced 108,812 tonnes.

For Lundin Mining, the sale aligns with its business transformation strategy, which focuses on developing copper projects in South America. In contrast, for Boliden, copper remains the key metal, while zinc takes a secondary role. In the first nine months of this year, Boliden produced 312,900 tonnes of copper anodes and 116,400 tonnes of cathodes, compared to 341,000 tonnes of zinc.

Currently, Boliden extracts zinc ore at only two of its facilities: Tara in Ireland and Garpenberg in Sweden. In January-September 2024, zinc ore extraction amounted to 122,400 tonnes, with the remaining volumes sourced from third-party suppliers. By acquiring Zinkgruvan and Neves-Corvo, Boliden will strengthen its raw material base and expand zinc production, which is in high demand among European manufacturers of galvanized rolled products and hot-dip galvanized steel structures.

Aluminium Prices Set to Rise

Global primary aluminium consumption is expected to grow by 3.2% to 70.35 million tonnes by the end of 2024, while supply will increase by 1.9% to 70.6 million tonnes, according to BMI forecasts. Despite a surplus of aluminium on the global market, prices are anticipated to remain high until the end of the year, averaging $2,450 per tonne (currently above $2,600). The aluminium surplus is projected to decrease from 384,000 tonnes at the beginning of 2024 to 96,000 tonnes by year-end.

BMI analysts attribute the rise in aluminium demand to the expansion of renewable energy initiatives, particularly in China, the world's largest aluminium consumer. Looking ahead, BMI expects aluminium prices to rise further due to increased demand driven by the shift to green energy and potential disruptions in the supply of raw materials for aluminium smelters.

Additionally, China's Ministry of Finance recently announced the termination of the 13% export tax rebate on aluminium products, effective December 1. This is expected to reduce exports of aluminium flat-rolled products and profiles, which may lead to lower production volumes and potentially affect the overall aluminium market.

As aluminium is classified as a critical metal in the US, Canada, and the European Union, their governments may incentivize domestic projects for production and usage. Overall, BMI forecasts global aluminium output could reach 88.2 million tonnes by 2033.

CATL to Launch Next-Generation Sodium-Ion Batteries

China's largest battery manufacturer, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), intends to start producing next-generation sodium-ion batteries next year. These new batteries are expected to have an energy density of 200Wh per kg, compared to the previous versions, which struggled to reach 100Wh per kg. While sodium-ion batteries are still behind lithium-ion batteries, which have an energy density of 300Wh per kg, they offer other advantages.

According to CATL representatives, sodium-ion batteries can operate at low temperatures (as low as -40 degrees Celsius), unlike lithium-ion batteries, which face issues in cold climates. Additionally, sodium-ion batteries pose a lower fire risk, making them safer. Sodium-ion technology has been considered an alternative to lithium-ion because sodium is abundant and can be extracted from common rock salt, making the unit cost lower if large-scale production is achieved.

CATL's competitors are also investing in sodium-ion technology. BYD, for example, aims to achieve a cost of materials for sodium-ion batteries comparable to that of lithium-ion by 2025, making them an attractive option for electric vehicle manufacturers.

Tirex Resources to Mine Base and Precious Metals in Albania

Canadian company Tirex Resources has submitted a request to the Albanian government to convert several mineral exploration concessions, following the completion of exploration activities in the Mirdita district. Located in central Albania, the Mirdita district contains deposits of copper, gold, silver, and zinc, formed by geothermal activity from ancient volcanoes.

Tirex Resources has identified copper, zinc, and gold deposits of interest and plans to develop them in partnership with Turkish company Ekin Maden. In March, the two companies agreed to cooperate, with Tirex Resources bringing six deposits in Mirdita into the partnership, while Ekin Maden will finance their development and the construction of the mine.

Albania holds deposits of copper, nickel, zinc, cobalt, gold, and silver, and has potential for platinum and bauxite reserves. However, these resources remain largely untapped. As a candidate member of the European Union since 2009, Albania has been pursuing policies to attract foreign investment, which could support the EU's goal of reducing its reliance on imported critical metals. Consequently, various companies may seek to develop Albania's deposits of non-ferrous and precious metals in the coming years.

China May Cut Antimony Supply to the US

A possible escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and China could worsen the trade war between the two countries, affecting the US military. China is the world's largest producer of antimony, a critical element used in armor-piercing ammunition, night vision devices, and batteries. According to the US Geological Survey, China produced 40,000 tonnes of antimony in 2023, while the world's total production was 83,000 tonnes. The US has no domestic antimony production.

If the Chinese government restricts antimony exports, the US defense industry will struggle to find an adequate substitute. Concerns about stable antimony supply have been voiced previously, and the recent halt in Russian antimony exports has only exacerbated the situation, as Russia is also one of the leading producers of the element. This year, global antimony prices have risen by 200%, with further increases expected.

In response, US companies are seeking to acquire antimony deposits. Military Metals, for instance, has three projects in Canada and Slovakia. Another competitor, Perpetua Resources, is finalizing a $1.86 billion government loan for its Stibnite Gold project, which includes antimony resources. Despite these efforts, it is unlikely that antimony mining and processing will be established quickly enough to mitigate the current dependency on China, meaning the US defense industry will continue to rely on Chinese supplies for the foreseeable future.

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